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Post by folatre on Jan 8, 2021 21:16:21 GMT -5
Predicting the future is admittedly tricky, but my perspective is that Dubois in the prime of his career is going to put up 75-80 points a season. I anticipate that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi have similar offensive potential as Dubois though it feels a little less certain. The reason for that with Suzuki is that he has 71 games in the league versus Dubois' 234 games. The reason for that with Kotkaniemi is that he is two years younger than Dubois and we still haven't seen what Kotkaniemi can do when he is physically ready. His first year he was too young and management rushed him because the 2017-18 Habs were a complete joke and entered 2018-19 season with almost no centres and his second year he was dealing with injuries from day one to the pause in March.
Basically Dubois is worth more than our kids because he has already logged three good seasons in the league. In other words, he has proven more. Also, Dubois is already of good defensive pivot who happens to be big-bodied and physically very hard to play against. Dubois was absolutely great against Toronto in the bubble. Thus, when you add in those factors, the value of Dubois separates even further from Suzuki and Kotkaniemi.
But what would it take? A lot. Kekalainen will not lack for blockbuster offers. Here are two packages Bergevin could earnestly float:
1) Suzuki, 2021 first round pick, two d-men not named Romanov or Guhle (so Kekalainen could replenish his d-corps for the post-Jones/Werenski era with two of Struble, Harris, Norlinder, Fleury, Brook or whoever);
2) Kotkaniemi, Caufield, a d-man not named Romanov or Guhle (so Kekalainen could choose Struble, Harris or Norlinder), a 2021 second round pick.
Both of these trades would be painful because Columbus gets a very good young centre, plus promising young players and/or valuable picks in return.
But I would pull the trigger because the best player in a trade matters the most and Montreal has the organizational depth to survive moving young assets.
If I thought Suzuki and Kotniemi had 95-100 point potential, then I would probably back off and say let's not do this. If Dubois was five years older than our kids, then I would say sorry the Habs cannot add so many additional assets.
However, I see Dubois, Suzuki and Kotkaniemi's offensive ceilings being roughly equivalent with Dubois being the least risky since he has proven way more in the league. And I just love Dubois' shut down ability, size, and nastiness.
Obviously, looking at the AAVs of the pieces involved, this deal could not happen this season unless Bergevin miraculously found a way to dump salaries somewhere. However, the numbers could obviously work in the summer if Kekelainen was sold on one of those two offers.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 8, 2021 22:31:21 GMT -5
So PLD is a 3C for us. DAMMIT....THAT'S AN EPIC DISATER!!!! There is possibly another horrible scenario, PLD is a power forward winger. Horrible...HORRIBLE I tell'ya. PLD-Kk-Anderson.....the horrors of lining up body bags for our Legion Of Pain.... Too bad KKs last name didnt start with an O... they'd be the D.O.A. line |
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Post by seventeen on Jan 9, 2021 0:56:44 GMT -5
Is this the bold prediction thread? Where is the bold prediction thread? Damn these aging eyes! Oh well. Here is my bold prediction. Jesperi Kotkaniemi will be better than Pierre-Luc Dubois. Perhaps as early as this year. Nothing wrong with having 3 great centres. |
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 9, 2021 9:22:05 GMT -5
49 points he's along ways from driving the offense. The costs is too high, he won't live up to expectations with media attention in hockey mad Montreal. 690 yesterday they wanted to offer Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle. Way too much I tend to agree with you Gnick, in that he's not the creative type that can drive the offense à la Mackinnon, Point, Eichel etc. PLD is more of a responsible all around player with the huge advantage of being able to impose his will on a game when he turns into the Hulk. And considering he's only 22 years old, one has to wonder what his ceiling is. Has he peaked already as a 0.7 ppg player? Will he develop to be an O'Reilly or Coutourier with a temper and the physical tools to back it up? A faster Jamie Benn? Very hard to say, and the local boy pressure is certainly a risk, but there certainly aren't many players like him. Some people probably take that risk if the price is low enough. That being said, if Columbus asks for Suzuki, Caufield and Guhle, I would counter offer them just Jordan Weal. If they want to overask to such an extreme, might as well lowball them to the same degree. Ok, maybe I'd throw in a 7th rounder. PLD is good player, but I am not sold on him offensive as most. Don't know if has right attitude to master the media attention local stars get in Montreal. The Montreal media have drove a lot of star playres out of here. Nothing they will hate any worse than giving up a ton, and local star underachieving. |
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Post by frozone on Jan 9, 2021 9:40:34 GMT -5
Predicting the future is admittedly tricky, but my perspective is that Dubois in the prime of his career is going to put up 75-80 points a season. I anticipate that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi have similar offensive potential as Dubois though it feels a little less certain. The reason for that with Suzuki is that he has 71 games in the league versus Dubois' 234 games. The reason for that with Kotkaniemi is that he is two years younger than Dubois and we still haven't seen what Kotkaniemi can do when he is physically ready. His first year he was too young and management rushed him because the 2017-18 Habs were a complete joke and entered 2018-19 season with almost no centres and his second year he was dealing with injuries from day one to the pause in March. Basically Dubois is worth more than our kids because he has already logged three good seasons in the league. In other words, he has proven more. Also, Dubois is already of good defensive pivot who happens to be big-bodied and physically very hard to play against. Dubois was absolutely great against Toronto in the bubble. Thus, when you add in those factors, the value of Dubois separates even further from Suzuki and Kotkaniemi. But what would it take? A lot. Kekalainen will not lack for blockbuster offers. Here are two packages Bergevin could earnestly float: 1) Suzuki, 2021 first round pick, two d-men not named Romanov or Guhle (so Kekalainen could replenish his d-corps for the post-Jones/Werenski era with two of Struble, Harris, Norlinder, Fleury, Brook or whoever); 2) Kotkaniemi, Caufield, a d-man not named Romanov or Guhle (so Kekalainen could choose Struble, Harris or Norlinder), a 2021 second round pick. Both of these trades would be painful because Columbus gets a very good young centre, plus promising young players and/or valuable picks in return. But I would pull the trigger because the best player in a trade matters the most and Montreal has the organizational depth to survive moving young assets. If I thought Suzuki and Kotniemi had 95-100 point potential, then I would probably back off and say let's not do this. If Dubois was five years older than our kids, then I would say sorry the Habs cannot add so many additional assets. However, I see Dubois, Suzuki and Kotkaniemi's offensive ceilings being roughly equivalent with Dubois being the least risky since he has proven way more in the league. And I just love Dubois' shut down ability, size, and nastiness. Obviously, looking at the AAVs of the pieces involved, this deal could not happen this season unless Bergevin miraculously found a way to dump salaries somewhere. However, the numbers could obviously work in the summer if Kekelainen was sold on one of those two offers. That's a pretty great summary, folatre. What would really be interesting would be if we can work out a package with Danault going the other way with a fresh new deal in principle. Danault, 1st, plus whatever prospects it takes to get the deal done. Unfortunately, I don't think Columbus speaks to us unless one of our young centers is on the block. |
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Post by Tankdriver on Jan 9, 2021 15:16:07 GMT -5
Is this the bold prediction thread? Where is the bold prediction thread? Damn these aging eyes! Oh well. Here is my bold prediction. Jesperi Kotkaniemi will be better than Pierre-Luc Dubois. Perhaps as early as this year. Nothing wrong with having 3 great centres. True but in a cap world it is impossible to do. The last time I recall that happening was with Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin and Staal. Then the had to trade him because the were empty on the wings. |
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Post by folatre on Jan 9, 2021 19:42:19 GMT -5
Yeah, frozone, I agree that Columbus is not moving Dubois unless a young NHL centre who they see as a likely 1C good for at least 70 points a season is coming back.
Danault turns 28 next month and he has been playing with high quality wingers since December 2017 so it is kind of clear what kind of offensive ceiling he has. Everyone has already seen it. Kekalainen is not accepting a deal for Dubois built around Danault.
I was talking to a guy, who is a Rangers fan, before my son's game this morning and he is hoping the Rangers can put together a package whereby Columbus takes Ryan Strome. I did not say much, but why in the frickin' world would Kekalainen do something like that. It makes no sense.
I have no idea if Bergevin is actively engaging with Kekalainen (though I am sure he called him), but there is no way a deal could happen without Suzuki or Kotkaniemi being the centerpiece of Montreal's package.
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Post by Cranky on Jan 9, 2021 19:55:28 GMT -5
I have a running debate....ok, call it an argument in another site.
My bottom line was that there is no deal to be had with Suzuki. Kk deal may be had but it will need an add, of which the highest value would be Romanov.
Best path is to wait 20 games to see if Kk is the real deal AND if Romanov is actually NHL material for this year. If Kk plays lights out, then there is a deal with maybe a secondary add on, but if Romanov is lighting it up, Bbinz will NEVER do it because he doesn't want a Sergachev repeat.
I really like Dubois, this bromance precedes any current "I wanna trade" by a year or more...but I don't want him at a damaging price. Kk has very high potential and he's not that much smaller then Dubois. He gives away an inch in height and maybe 10 pounds? Big deal. Plus there is a high risk factor that given the current situation, Dubois is me-moi about money. If he asks for $10m as a 60 point center, GOODBYE.
There is a risk and the grass is hiding holes.....
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 10, 2021 11:02:32 GMT -5
I have a running debate....ok, call it an argument in another site. My bottom line was that there is no deal to be had with Suzuki. Kk deal may be had but it will need an add, of which the highest value would be Romanov. Best path is to wait 20 games to see if Kk is the real deal AND if Romanov is actually NHL material for this year. If Kk plays lights out, then there is a deal with maybe a secondary add on, but if Romanov is lighting it up, Bbinz will NEVER do it because he doesn't want a Sergachev repeat. I really like Dubois, this bromance precedes any current "I wanna trade" by a year or more...but I don't want him at a damaging price. Kk has very high potential and he's not that much smaller then Dubois. He gives away an inch in height and maybe 10 pounds? Big deal. Plus there is a high risk factor that given the current situation, Dubois is me-moi about money. If he asks for $10m as a 60 point center, GOODBYE. There is a risk and the grass is hiding holes..... Yup, plus drove Dubois out of Columbus how do these people think he can handle Montreal? If they trade KK for Dubois we have to move salary in another deal. KK on ELC, while Dubois is 5 million cap hit. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 10, 2021 12:35:57 GMT -5
Kk has proven he can handle montreal, he accepted demotion and came back bigger, better stronger... the kid has huge upside... he will be the beast we've wanted... him and andersone would be wrecking balls... feeding of each other
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Post by Tankdriver on Jan 10, 2021 13:02:13 GMT -5
Kk has proven he can handle montreal, he accepted demotion and came back bigger, better stronger... the kid has huge upside... he will be the beast we've wanted... him and andersone would be wrecking balls... feeding of each other Except KK gets Toffoli and Armia. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 10, 2021 13:14:38 GMT -5
Kk has proven he can handle montreal, he accepted demotion and came back bigger, better stronger... the kid has huge upside... he will be the beast we've wanted... him and andersone would be wrecking balls... feeding of each other Except KK gets Toffoli and Armia. I know... Anderson is with Drouin and Suzuki to spark drouin... 5.5 mill a year in salary ain't enough, we have to devote another 5.5 a year (Anderson) to motivate him and for MB to try and minimize the perception of that terrible trade |
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Post by seventeen on Jan 11, 2021 1:15:53 GMT -5
Nothing wrong with having 3 great centres. True but in a cap world it is impossible to do. The last time I recall that happening was with Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin and Staal. Then the had to trade him because the were empty on the wings. The return on that trade was Brandon Sutter, a decent centre for the style of play in vogue at the time, Brian Dumoulin, who has become the Pens second best defenseman and the 8th overall pick in what turned out to be a crappy draft (2012 - Derrick Pouliot). Not a bad return for a guy they had to trade. Jordan Staal never really became a difference maker. Really, I'm quite comfortable with not trading for Dubois. Simply as a hypothetical exercise, you could do worse than try. |
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Post by seventeen on Jan 11, 2021 1:23:52 GMT -5
Except KK gets Toffoli and Armia. I know... Anderson is with Drouin and Suzuki to spark drouin... 5.5 mill a year in salary ain't enough, we have to devote another 5.5 a year (Anderson) to motivate him and for MB to try and minimize the perception of that terrible trade This reminds me too much of "we gotta find the right partner for Weber". If the player is truly good enough, he makes those around him better, not the other way around. If I'm GM and that question pops up about a player, I'd consider the merit, but I'd also put a pencil mark beside his name as a guy to move if the right deal comes along. Is it really Anderson's job to motivate Drouin? As an aside, I guy I follow on Twitter said he was blocked by Drouin after saying some negative things about his play. This guy is reasonable in his tweets and doesn't propose something unless he has some data or reasonable premise for doing so. He can twist some stats at times, but he's not a deliberate troll. The point I'm getting at is that if Drouin's feelings are that sensitive about criticism from some guy he doesn't know from Adam, that suggests he still has some growing up to do. That tweet about getting blocked was recent so I'm guessing the block was too. Not the kind of thing I'd expect from a player. Why is Drouin even worrying about Twitter? |
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 11, 2021 14:50:36 GMT -5
Kk has proven he can handle montreal, he accepted demotion and came back bigger, better stronger... the kid has huge upside... he will be the beast we've wanted... him and andersone would be wrecking balls... feeding of each other I would give up a few points to have better attitude in dressing room. Wonder what the reason behind Dubois wanting out of Colombus? He will have more take home there than in Montreal. Torts? He has a history of turmoil. |
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Post by Tankdriver on Jan 11, 2021 15:40:13 GMT -5
Regarding Dubois, I heard he wanted to be on a bigger stage.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 11, 2021 19:00:14 GMT -5
Regarding Dubois, I heard he wanted to be on a bigger stage. Bettman will make sure he goes to the Rags... |
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Post by Cranky on Jan 11, 2021 19:47:05 GMT -5
Bigger stage? Yeah...sure.
What is he going to say? That Torts is a complete ahole and he doesn't want to play for him?
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 12, 2021 11:56:58 GMT -5
Regarding Dubois, I heard he wanted to be on a bigger stage. Well, he certainly be on a big one here. lol Maybe take a second look at him. Takes bigger centers like him longer to develop. Barkov never hit it in his 4th year. But hard time for him to say that now. Most the teams made their moves for the season. Spent most their caproom. |
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 12, 2021 17:22:34 GMT -5
31 Thoughts has us in on Dubois. Us and Jets are main ones. Other teams talking with Jackets also.
I may been wrong about Dubois. If Bergs after him that hard.
If he ends up next Barkov?
Wonder if 3 team trade? We trade Danault to a team like Kings, for a young center. Then flip him to Jackets with our first and a top prospect?
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Post by PTH on Jan 12, 2021 19:38:29 GMT -5
31 Thoughts has us in on Dubois. Us and Jets are main ones. Other teams talking with Jackets also. I may been wrong about Dubois. If Bergs after him that hard. If he ends up next Barkov? Wonder if 3 team trade? We trade Danault to a team like Kings, for a young center. Then flip him to Jackets with our first and a top prospect? KK or Suzuki must be going the other way. I'd expect KK, a first and a prospect we don't want to lose to be the baseline. Jarmo Kekäläinen might have more faith in KK than other GMs. |
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Post by folatre on Jan 12, 2021 20:12:23 GMT -5
If Bergevin really wants in, then he probably needs to pray that Kekalainen waits until July to pull the trigger. In this economic landscape, I simply cannot see how Montreal could move enough money out to absorb Dubois' $5 million AAV. There is virtually no cap space or liquidity in the system right now.
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Post by Cranky on Jan 12, 2021 20:42:12 GMT -5
If Bergevin really wants in, then he probably needs to pray that Kekalainen waits until July to pull the trigger. In this economic landscape, I simply cannot see how Montreal could move enough money out to absorb Dubois' $5 million AAV. There is virtually no cap space or liquidity in the system right now. That's just the bridge cost. After that, if he is really top 5 centers in the league, more like 9-10 million. Then what happens if, nee, when Suzuki hits that level? Between them they are going to suck up all the Price/Weber cap. By then, Weber and Price would be in the rear view mirror AND a new generations is emerging AND there is a lot more cap room. Dubois may be the monster center we dream of, but he also will be a monster cap hit. |
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 13, 2021 8:37:47 GMT -5
31 Thoughts has us in on Dubois. Us and Jets are main ones. Other teams talking with Jackets also. I may been wrong about Dubois. If Bergs after him that hard. If he ends up next Barkov? Wonder if 3 team trade? We trade Danault to a team like Kings, for a young center. Then flip him to Jackets with our first and a top prospect? KK or Suzuki must be going the other way. I'd expect KK, a first and a prospect we don't want to lose to be the baseline. Jarmo Kekäläinen might have more faith in KK than other GMs. Bergevin must be high on Dubois to be in on him. Habs made lot of changes and things look good. Major trade like that will shake things up. Plus, Dubois has to quarantine entering Canada. Will miss several games at start of season. Which is bigger than usual as only 56 games. |
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Post by Tankdriver on Jan 13, 2021 9:02:14 GMT -5
Let's also not forget, that Bergevin wanted to trade up in the draft and wanted Edmonton's pick to be included in the Subban deal. Once Columbus surprised everyone and took PLD before Jesse Puljujarvi, Montreal backed off on it.
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Post by PTH on Jan 13, 2021 11:08:35 GMT -5
Let's also not forget, that Bergevin wanted to trade up in the draft and wanted Edmonton's pick to be included in the Subban deal. Once Columbus surprised everyone and took PLD before Jesse Puljujarvi, Montreal backed off on it. Still a shame since we'd have gotten Draisatl. I could never clear up if we had to give up our 9th in the process. Columbus clearly looks smart for making that off the board pick at this point. |
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Post by Cranky on Jan 13, 2021 18:49:50 GMT -5
This morning, Tortastupid added fuel to the fire. At this point, best for everyone to trade him to us.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jan 13, 2021 20:44:07 GMT -5
Regarding Dubois, I heard he wanted to be on a bigger stage. If I'm Marc Bergevin, and I'm not, but if I were, I'd wait to see how the team does out of the gate ... if the team is rolling I'd be very reluctant to make a move and disrupting the chemistry of the team ... if the team looks like they might need a shot in the arm, then sure, consider it ... the longer Bergevin waits the worse it might be for the team, IMHO ... Cheers. |
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Post by GNick99 on Jan 13, 2021 23:51:25 GMT -5
Let's also not forget, that Bergevin wanted to trade up in the draft and wanted Edmonton's pick to be included in the Subban deal. Once Columbus surprised everyone and took PLD before Jesse Puljujarvi, Montreal backed off on it. Yeah well, decent chance Dubois ends up in Montreal. Bergevin seems to go hard after the guy he wants. Paid well for Anderson, Allen, etc... Held out forever until Suzuki was put in play in Pacioretty trade. |
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Post by folatre on Jan 13, 2021 23:52:04 GMT -5
Part of the unfolding scenario will depend on how Columbus comes out of the gate. If Dubois and Torts hate each other but the Blue Jackets are successfully playing their brand of hockey and racking up points, then I would think Kekalainen is not going to be in hurry unless someone blows him away.
I think Bergevin has the pieces to make a deal but there is just so little liquidity in the league right now I have no idea how he could move enough money to consummate a trade in season. I continue to believe that Montreal's best hope would be for Columbus to have a nice season and Kekalainen decides that it is logical to resolve Dubois' request in July.
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