Duchene

[GNick99]

Sounds like he may be on the move?

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Aaron Portzline @aportzline
Expectation is that #CBJ D Ryan Murray would be headed to the #Avs, along with another roster player or prospect/pick.

[blny]

Preds have apparently made an offer too.

CBJ may also be offering Boone Jenner.

[GNick99]

Jun 30, 2017 15:11:27 GMT -5 blny said:

Preds have apparently made an offer too.

CBJ may also be offering Boone Jenner.

Jenner + Murray is big price for Duchene

[jkr]

This article puts Murray behind Werenski, Jones & Savard in their depth chart and Johnson is coming back. Has he fallen out of favor in CBJ?

www.sbnation.com/nhl/2017/6/30/15904672/matt-duchene-trade-rumors-blue-jackets-predators-ryan-murray

[PTH]

Jun 30, 2017 16:09:18 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

Jun 30, 2017 15:11:27 GMT -5 blny said:

Preds have apparently made an offer too.

CBJ may also be offering Boone Jenner.

Jenner + Murray is big price for Duchene

Would you think it would be enough for Galchenyuk ? Galch and Duchene have similar value in my books.

[blny]

Jun 30, 2017 16:35:51 GMT -5 jkr said:

This article puts Murray behind Werenski, Jones & Savard in their depth chart and Johnson is coming back. Has he fallen out of favor in CBJ?

www.sbnation.com/nhl/2017/6/30/15904672/matt-duchene-trade-rumors-blue-jackets-predators-ryan-murray

Apparently he has yea. Seen their fans throw his name around some.

[folatre]

Unless Sakic is now in panic mode, I do not see why this makes sense for him after setting bar so high, unless he has been remarkably confused throughout this process.

Murray is fine but honestly I do not think he is even close to the stud talent people thought a few years ago. Maybe he needs a change of scenery but for me he is never going to be a top pair quality guy. I think Columbus wants to dump him before it becomes even more apparent.

Jenner, I like him, his attributes are strong in todays NHL. I would certainly see the value there. But he is not first line talent.

A second pair d-man, and nice second line winger for Duchene? Of course, there must also be pick involved and one would assume it is Columbus #1 next spring.

Is that fair? It is not that far off, in my opinion. But I believe Sakic is playing silly game for more than 12 months. His narrative is that Duchene did not demand a trade and that Duchene is a legitimate #1 centreman, like top 15 in league. Hello, Joe, if this is true and watching what Pittsburgh and Edmonton and many clubs dream of, why the heck do you not build around two stud centres and get the #1 defenseman piece in the draft?

I think Duchene wants to leave in no uncertain terms (terrible relationship with management) and that Duchene is not an elite centre (top 15) in the NHL. Murray, Jenner and a low #1 pick would basically acknowledge that Duchene wants to leave in no uncertain terms, that he is not really an elite centre in the NHL, and that Sakic probably overplayed his hand.

[seventeen]

Jun 30, 2017 16:45:38 GMT -5 PTH said:

Jun 30, 2017 16:09:18 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

Jenner + Murray is big price for Duchene

Would you think it would be enough for Galchenyuk ? Galch and Duchene have similar value in my books.

Duchene was picked for a couple of Canadian national teams. Galchenyuk hasn't gotten a sniff from the guys that pick those teams. I personally don't think that when Chuck is healthy there's a huge difference between the two (Duchene is 10-15% beter), but the old boys club obviously feels it's more than that.

[GNick99]

Jun 30, 2017 16:45:38 GMT -5 PTH said:

Jun 30, 2017 16:09:18 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

Jenner + Murray is big price for Duchene

Would you think it would be enough for Galchenyuk ? Galch and Duchene have similar value in my books.

Thing that worries me about Galchenyuk is he never was the same after coming back from knee injury this year. That was same knee he injured before. I just see a red flag.

[jkr]

Jul 1, 2017 0:12:53 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Jun 30, 2017 16:45:38 GMT -5 PTH said:

Would you think it would be enough for Galchenyuk ? Galch and Duchene have similar value in my books.

Duchene was picked for a couple of Canadian national teams. Galchenyuk hasn't gotten a sniff from the guys that pick those teams. I personally don't think that when Chuck is healthy there's a huge difference between the two (Duchene is 10-15% beter), but the old boys club obviously feels it's more than that.

Based on the way teams are picked you can't use national team selection as a way of determining a player's value. Canada has made some odd picks (Muzzin, Hamhuis, Kunitz) and non picks (Subban). Team USA passed over Phil Kessel despite his great playoff last year and they passed on Galchenyuk despite his chemistry with Pacioretty and the end of the previous season.

IMO, Duchene being picked for a national team means little.

[PTH]

Jul 1, 2017 7:51:44 GMT -5 jkr said:

Jul 1, 2017 0:12:53 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Duchene was picked for a couple of Canadian national teams. Galchenyuk hasn't gotten a sniff from the guys that pick those teams. I personally don't think that when Chuck is healthy there's a huge difference between the two (Duchene is 10-15% beter), but the old boys club obviously feels it's more than that.

Based on the way teams are picked you can't use national team selection as a way of determining a player's value. Canada has made some odd picks (Muzzin, Hamhuis, Kunitz) and non picks (Subban). Team USA passed over Phil Kessel despite his great playoff last year and they passed on Galchenyuk despite his chemistry with Pacioretty and the end of the previous season.

IMO, Duchene being picked for a national team means little.

Given his very strange testicular cancer at 19, I've always assumed Kessel was on steroids of some kind, which would explain his non-selection, since the NHL will probably have easier-to-fool testing than an international competition with stringent regulations.

Note: I have strictly zero inside information, it's just how it seemed to me.

Heck, rumors of just about any substance abuse might be enough to get anyone non-selected at the international level.

[jkr]

Jul 1, 2017 12:56:49 GMT -5 PTH said:

Jul 1, 2017 7:51:44 GMT -5 jkr said:

Based on the way teams are picked you can't use national team selection as a way of determining a player's value. Canada has made some odd picks (Muzzin, Hamhuis, Kunitz) and non picks (Subban). Team USA passed over Phil Kessel despite his great playoff last year and they passed on Galchenyuk despite his chemistry with Pacioretty and the end of the previous season.

IMO, Duchene being picked for a national team means little.

Given his very strange testicular cancer at 19, I've always assumed Kessel was on steroids of some kind, which would explain his non-selection, since the NHL will probably have easier-to-fool testing than an international competition with stringent regulations.

Note: I have strictly zero inside information, it's just how it seemed to me.

Heck, rumors of just about any substance abuse might be enough to get anyone non-selected at the international level.

Interesting take. Had not thought of that.

I think Kessel's reputation & bad press in Toronto led to his non-selection though.

[blny]

If you look at Phil's physique, I don't think you can consider Phil to have been a roid user. Statistically speaking, Kessel's testicular cancer discover at 19 would be an 'outlier'.

[madhabber]

Didn't Kessel play on the Olympic team in '14.

[jkr]

Jul 1, 2017 14:50:27 GMT -5 madhabber said:

Didn't Kessel play on the Olympic team in '14.

Yankees but he was passed over for the Canada Cup.

[HFTO]

From the outside Chucky has gotten extremely short stick and honestly all the outside crap deal with it ...this team develops nobody and crushes players confidence way too often.
Chucky for Duchene is a sideways move IMO with Chucky having a way better upside younger faster bigger stronger and way more skill play the hell out of him and not with 3rd liners.

HFTO

[folatre]

Inevitably Sakic is increasing probability that he sells Duchene inferior to what Columbus offered or even what Islanders proposed.

Colorado is abysmal and even a talented guy giving good effort may be further drown in mediocrity of the situation. And to be honest it is hard to imagine Duchene playing con el cuchillo entre los dientes for that organization after everything.

[seventeen]

Jul 12, 2017 18:51:52 GMT -5 HFTO said:

From the outside Chucky has gotten extremely short stick and honestly all the outside crap deal with it ...this team develops nobody and crushes players confidence way too often.
Chucky for Duchene is a sideways move IMO with Chucky having a way better upside younger faster bigger stronger and way more skill play the hell out of him and not with 3rd liners.

HFTO

Duchene is actually an extremely good skater. He's faster and more agile than Chuck. I don't think he has as good a shot.

I totally agree that the Habs do a poor job of developing players. You don't just hand them a list of things to do and then go away. From interviews I've heard from the development guys (Lapointe for example), that's exactly what they do. Here's the regimen. See you at training camp. I believe the players get the occasional visit during hockey season, but your prospects need tender loving care and some tough love as well if they're not following the program. You wouldn't leave your teen alone on the computer with instructions to stay away from porn sites and simply expect them to obey. Some would....and some won't.

[folatre]

Toady the nhl.com piece on Duchene is interesting. Without saying anything provocative towards his current employer, he sounds like he is moved on already. For a team destined to lose an immense number of hockey games in the coming season, holding a dispirited employee in this environment is a recipe to further devalue the asset.

The problem is not that Sakic wants a stud defense prospect in return (Bergevin no doubt offered him Sergachev long before Yzerman made a deal with Montreal), the problem is that he overvaluing Duchene to the extent that he wants the young stud on defense, a young player already proven to be NHL first or second line point producer, and a #1 pick.

Bergevin does not have the asset juice to approach the crazy expectations Sakic maintains.

[jkr]

I think the rest of the league has told Sakic to take a hike. If he can't figure that out then maybe he's the one that should move on.

[PTH]

Aug 2, 2017 16:55:21 GMT -5 folatre said:

Toady the nhl.com piece on Duchene is interesting. Without saying anything provocative towards his current employer, he sounds like he is moved on already. For a team destined to lose an immense number of hockey games in the coming season, holding a dispirited employee in this environment is a recipe to further devalue the asset.

The problem is not that Sakic wants a stud defense prospect in return (Bergevin no doubt offered him Sergachev long before Yzerman made a deal with Montreal), the problem is that he overvaluing Duchene to the extent that he wants the young stud on defense, a young player already proven to be NHL first or second line point producer, and a #1 pick.

Bergevin does not have the asset juice to approach the crazy expectations Sakic maintains.

Well, Berg could offer something along the lines of Gallagher, Juulsen and a 1st. Probably not what Colorado is hoping for, but I'd curious to see if they can get much more than that. They might ask for Lehkonen instead of Gallagher though, and I wouldn't go there. as long as Lehk is on an entry-level contract, I'm not moving him.

I actually can't see many teams topping my Gallagher, Juulsen and a 1st offer, given that Duchene hasn't had the greatest numbers and has a fairly high cap hit. It's possible someone could ask for a 1 for 1 flip for a comparable player, but if it's a multi-part package, I wouldn't go any higher.

[blny]

Dave Poulin thinks he'll be gone before camp, but he's echoing what the world is saying. The Avs are going to have to reevaluate their asking price. No one thinks Duchene is a central piece. They all think he's a complimentary player, and the asking price should reflect that. I'm inferring that the offers were as such.

He's got 2 years left at $6 million per. I don't know if he can get back to the 70 point season he had under Roy. I'm suspect. His greatest asset is his skating and speed. He's neither a great shooter, nor do I think of him as having great vision to set up line mates.

What does that mean his value is presently? Dunno. I think the price comes down significantly. I don't see it costing Gallagher, Juulsen and a first. The Avs tried to create a bidding war to drive the price up. It backfired. I see the league giving them the cold shoulder until the opposite happens and the price plummets.

[folatre]

Similarly I take pulse of situation. There is not really anything more Bergevin reasonably could offer than Juulsen, Gallagher and 1st rounder.

Sakic demands are crazy for a guy with neutral (read between lines, highly negative) feeling about staying in Colorado, plummeting numbers as team stinks, and only two seasons control and counting down for whoever acquires him.

Plenty of clubs have assets to meet Sakic demands. But are actually there any clubs willing to go there? Hockey is debatable, but my sense is Sakic will keep holding tight with his eyes closed and later (February 2018, June 2018, or February 2019) likely sell Duchene for no more than Juulsen, Gallagher and Habs first. I mean, Columbus offered him Murray, Jenner and a first. Is that better? Depends on evaluation, I think Murray is going to be lucky to be second pair guy moving forward, Jenner production wise is a nice player but really production wise is second liner and Jackets first rounder is same thing as Montreal first rounder.

[Andrew]

The big issue with Duchene is that he's two years from UFA, which is less than ideal. Few teams are prepared to pay a premium for a guy that likely is either gone or earning a huge contract to stay in 24 months.

For the assets we're throwing around in this thread (Gallagher & Juulsen) I'd be targeting Nugent-Hopkins, with 4 years remaining at $6M.

[folatre]

Good observation, Andrew.

On the one hand, I see Bergevin with need to do something now or at least by trade deadline in what may be dogfight scenario for playoffs. On the other hand, Edmonton is not facing any cap issues until next summer so unless Chiarelli thinks the guys you are offering make the Oilers more likely to win the Stanley Cup in 2017-18, then I would imagine Nugent-Hopkins stay where he is.

I would prefer RNH for the reason you say, control and cap certainty are valuable commodities considering some of the scary contracts Bergevin has inexplicably hung around the neck of the organization for nearly the next decade.

If I was to simply evaluate the players I think Duchene at his best offers a little more than Nugent-Hopkins at his best. Duchene is faster, more durable, better face-off man, and though he is not lethal trigger man he possess more of attack mentality (north-south) when goal opportunity are there. RNH is better ice vision, commitment to defense, and tactical nous to elevate game of linemates.

[franko]

Aug 3, 2017 14:36:58 GMT -5 folatre said:

RNH is better ice vision, commitment to defense, and tactical nous to elevate game of linemates.

well, that settles who MB is interested in . . .

[blny]

Go big or go home. Half measures still don't really interest me. Offer sheet Leon! lol

[Andrew]

Aug 3, 2017 14:36:58 GMT -5 folatre said:

On the other hand, Edmonton is not facing any cap issues until next summer so unless Chiarelli thinks the guys you are offering make the Oilers more likely to win the Stanley Cup in 2017-18, then I would imagine Nugent-Hopkins stay where he is.

I think you're right. The Oilers are in a good spot this year with McDavid still earning entry level dollars. They can afford to play all three centers, and could verry well make a deep playoff run.

[folatre]

Maybe you guys already hear this one, on the weekend a neighbor Habs fan told me Bergevin is not having success to land Duchene because Montreal no longer possess elite defense piece to entice Colorado so he is trying to acquire such a piece. So if wrong I do not remember, the deal (invention of someone imagination) was Bergevin acquires Sanheim from Philadelphia for Pacioretty and then he flips the d-man prospect to Colorado for Duchene.

This rumor sounds totally illogical because I feel relatively sure in the spring Bergevin offered Sergachev plus a pick and Sakic declined (pretty much the same deal that Yzerman accepted), so if a blue chip defense prospect plus a pick was not enough for Sakic then why would it be now. And moreover, what is the motive for Philadelphia here? Hextall seems to be masterful at driving down expectations to the extent that most Flyers fans seem okay about consistently missing the playoffs since they drafting and developing nicely.

[seventeen]

If you think Bergevin was criticized for the Subban deal, he'd be tarred and feathered if he traded Patches for an unproven, possible 2nd pairing dman at best.

For that he'd be fired. Not going to happen.