Will there be playoffs while the virus is spreading?

[Willie Dog]

Apr 28, 2020 15:21:00 GMT -5 PTH said:

I don't know what to think... sending grade school kids back, on a voluntary basis, seems like a compromise to help get parents back in the workforce, while minimizing exposure...

The problem is that Covid isn't the only enemy, and I think Quebec has a lot of resources to help out kids which are set up through schools, so closing schools blocks access to a lot of other resources. There are a lot of sh!tty parents out there, and for those kids, school is a lifeline.

I'm more annoyed at home travel between regions is still blocked, as well as all socialization. I was hoping for .... something. I got nuthin.

I'm also a Quebec government employee, and as I've already said, we're horribly behind technologically and in terms of work organization, so teleworking isn't working out very well for me.

My concern are there are more and more reports of kids not being "immune" to COVID-19 and schools, in general, are natural petrie dishes. The health of the kids, teachers, support staff, bus drivers etc are all being put at risk.... I think it is short sighted.

I also think since SK, NB and PEI have put forward plans to open things up (only because their covid numbers are ridiculously small), it has other premiers talking Saperlipopette... Even Ford opened his mouth when he shouldn't have said anything except "we're staying the course until the numbers drop to a level we feel safe in opening things up".

[franko]

Apr 28, 2020 16:37:10 GMT -5 jkr said:

When I first heard that elementary kids only were going back my thought was that they may be more compliant & less apt to rebel against safety measures taken.

kids, on being told that they can go into the playground but need to keep "physical distance"/stay 6 feet away from others: let's play tag!

[folatre]

Danault was in a little conference call today and he spoke frankly about his feelings about taking everyone in the league to pod cities to be quarantined in a bubble for mini-camp, regular season and playoff games. Jeje, basically he said that he had no interest in playing meaningless games away from his family. I do not mind his honesty per se, but something says to me that he is not reading from the script that Molson and Bettman want players using.

[PTH]

Apr 28, 2020 18:57:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Danault was in a little conference call today and he spoke frankly about his feelings about taking everyone in the league to pod cities to be quarantined in a bubble for mini-camp, regular season and playoff games. Jeje, basically he said that he had no interest in playing meaningless games away from his family. I do not mind his honesty per se, but something says to me that he is not reading from the script that Molson and Bettman want players using.

I by far prefer some divergent opinions, to get all the facts out there and know what options are being considered.

When you have a tight, focused message, it pretty much tells you that there's an agreed-upon script in the background, and that fuels my feeling that powers-that-be are manipulating things in the background.

[seventeen]

Apr 28, 2020 16:37:10 GMT -5 jkr said:

When I first heard that elementary kids only were going back my thought was that they may be more compliant & less apt to rebel against safety measures taken.

I did see a Quebec government official on CBC. He said they aren't married to this decision & will back away from it if necessary.

My wife is a primary school teacher. The one thing you can absolutely count on is that there is no such thing s social distancing with 5-8 year olds. Monkeying around is the polite way to describe it, and while they may very well want to please the teacher and follow instructions, it ain't gonna happen.

[seventeen]

Apr 28, 2020 18:57:16 GMT -5 folatre said:

Danault was in a little conference call today and he spoke frankly about his feelings about taking everyone in the league to pod cities to be quarantined in a bubble for mini-camp, regular season and playoff games. Jeje, basically he said that he had no interest in playing meaningless games away from his family. I do not mind his honesty per se, but something says to me that he is not reading from the script that Molson and Bettman want players using.

Danault is exactly right. It's easy to forget that players have wives, kids, parents, siblings etc. They're just like us! And while some of us might not rebel at being split up from your spouse for weeks on end , it is not an ideal family situation. Good for Phillip.

[folatre]

The pod bubble concept is not actually compatible with finishing the regular season because there are plenty of pending games between teams who would not be placed in the same pod. For example, if the Habs are living in a bubble in Toronto with the other Atlantic teams, the pending games against the Kings, the Ducks, the Sharks, Chicago, Nashville, and Colorado are not happening anyway. And this reality is true for every team. My point is that if teams are not playing the actual slate of games that remained on their schedule, the notion of just playing some more games and adding those wins and losses to the standings would not be legitimate.

For me it would be highly preferable for the league to simply decide in the next couple of weeks on the playoff format and thus officially end the season for the teams that are not playoff worthy.

[NWTHabsFan]

Apr 29, 2020 21:31:48 GMT -5 folatre said:

The pod bubble concept is not actually compatible with finishing the regular season because there are plenty of pending games between teams who would not be placed in the same pod. For example, if the Habs are living in a bubble in Toronto with the other Atlantic teams, the pending games against the Kings, the Ducks, the Sharks, Chicago, Nashville, and Colorado are not happening anyway. And this reality is true for every team. My point is that if teams are not playing the actual slate of games that remained on their schedule, the notion of just playing some more games and adding those wins and losses to the standings would not be legitimate.

For me it would be highly preferable for the league to simply decide in the next couple of weeks on the playoff format and thus officially end the season for the teams that are not playoff worthy.

Yeah, it works for playoffs, especially with division rivals. Rest of regular season, a logistical nightmare. Give it up NHL already.

[folatre]

Each club owes approximately 12 games on their 2019-20 local tv deals. This is probably the main impediment ($$) to the league giving up on the remainder of the regular season.

My thought is why doesn’t the league simply create a preliminary wildcard playoff round (best of three) that would yield a minimum of 8 games and a max of 12 games and give all of the local rights holders exclusive broadcast control for this prelim round. Obviously, the game feed would have to be produced by NBC and Rogers because it is not practical or safe to have 32 different broadcast crews in the buildings.

Who would be in the playoffs, then?

Nothing is perfect, though I think the fairest approach based on points per game percentage is to give the top three in each division automatic entries and four teams from each conference battle it out for the wildcards.

So basically it would be:

Boston versus the winner of Islanders v Columbus
Tampa versus Toronto

Washington versus the winner of Carolina v Florida
Philadelphia versus Pittsburgh

St. Louis versus the winner of Nashville v Minnesota
Colorado versus Dallas

Las Vegas versus the winner of Calgary v Winnipeg
Edmonton versus Vancouver

Mercifully, eleven clubs would have their season declared over and done. And the only one who can feel sore about being left out is the Rangers.

[folatre]

My clear preference is to have to draft after the season is completed or cancelled. However, if the league is so hell bent on having the draft in June, then Bettman and the owners should agree on which clubs are in the playoffs ASAP. There is no compelling reason to wait indefinitely on that issue. Finishing the regular season with bogus games that were not actually the ones on the schedule in front of zero fans is simply not worth finishing.

It is not perfect but as I said a couple of days ago I am still partial to the idea of green-lighting 20 teams, thereby creating an additional preliminary wildcard round to recoup lost regular season television revenue, and beginning the off-season for the other teams whose players basically want nothing to do with participating in meaningless games. If the league went in the direction of this alternative, then it would be possible to keep the playoffs teams separate from the non-playoff teams in the real lottery, create multiple draft lotteries, and establish max exposure throughout the month of June.

The main weighted lottery (would have to tweak the weights slightly with fewer teams) would be comprised of eleven teams:

Detroit, Ottawa, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, New Jersey, Buffalo, Montreal, Chicago, Arizona, Rangers

There will be three additional unweighted lotteries (equal odds for all):

The wild card contestants: Carolina, Florida, Islanders, Columbus, Nashville, Minnesota, Calgary, Winnipeg

The #2 and #3 divisional seeds: Tampa, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton, Vancouver

The division winners: Boston, Washington, St. Louis, Las Vegas

And the order in Rounds 2-7 of the draft would not reflect lottery outcomes, rather they would just reflect the points per game percentage when the regular season was declared completed.

[GNick99]

How do they plan on playing in empty arenas? Canada is still averaging 1,700-1,800 cases a day. If they come back too fast could be catastrophic.

[folatre]

The empty arenas are a given. And it is starting to sound as though the league and the NHLPA are moving to a shared realization that playing regular season is not sensible. The question is really what playoff format is the right format.

[GNick99]

May 7, 2020 21:22:17 GMT -5 folatre said:

The empty arenas are a given. And it is starting to sound as though the league and the NHLPA are moving to a shared realization that playing regular season is not sensible. The question is really what playoff format is the right format.

Gotta Fol, I haven't been following that end of it much. They must be going to quarantine the players for those 2 months? Teams must be really hard up for playoff money to be going to all this trouble. Empty areans, quarantined players, changing the draft, starting next season late, compressed schedule, etc... It is crazy the way it is being handled if you asked me

[jkr]

I agree with Nick. At this point, why bother? The players have been off for 2 months so it Wil be like another training camp.

This league has blown off full seasons for far less important reasons. While the pandemic is still a danger, it just seems unseemly to pursue this.

[folatre]

I hear you, guys. But all of the European futbol leagues (English Premier, Bundesliga, La Liga) with big television deals are thinking about money in their decision to relaunch. In North America, the NBA, MLB, Nascar, etc. are determined to provide content so as to not lose the broadcasting cash. I guess it would be unrealistic to imagine the NHL would be less obsessed with the almighty dollar. I am not saying that Bettman, the owners, and the players are oblivious to the suffering going on all around them. It is just that their main focus is salvaging what they can of their own bottom line.

[jkr]

I read an article in the NY Times yesterday that stated the Premier League would be on the hook for 1.5 billion $ if they stopped this season. Despite this the bottom 6 teams have banded together. They would rather see the rest of the season unplayed; not because of the pandemic but to escape relegation & get another year of Premier League cash.

Ligue1 in France ended their season & named PSG, with a 12 point lead, champions. Now the league is already facing a lawsuit from one of the relegated teams.

I guess my point is that despite the pandemic, there are no shortage of people or organizations, putting their interests first.

[GNick99]

May 8, 2020 7:54:21 GMT -5 folatre said:

I hear you, guys. But all of the European futbol leagues (English Premier, Bundesliga, La Liga) with big television deals are thinking about money in their decision to relaunch. In North America, the NBA, MLB, Nascar, etc. are determined to provide content so as to not lose the broadcasting cash. I guess it would be unrealistic to imagine the NHL would be less obsessed with the almighty dollar. I am not saying that Bettman, the owners, and the players are oblivious to the suffering going on all around them. It is just that their main focus is salvaging what they can of their own bottom line.

Figured it was over money the way the they were acting. After they tried to move the draft to get a high tv rating before the other sports get started.

They don't have to act like that. Players haven't skated for 2 months. To quarantine them from their families and put them at risk to the virus, ontop of a condensed schedule? It is out and out greed! All the players are multi millionaires and most owners are billionaires. Bettman would sell his soul to the devil for a dollar, then sell tickets to the event for .25 cents.

[GNick99]

May 8, 2020 9:59:04 GMT -5 jkr said:

I read an article in the NY Times yesterday that stated the Premier League would be on the hook for 1.5 billion $ if they stopped this season. Despite this the bottom 6 teams have banded together. They would rather see the rest of the season unplayed; not because of the pandemic but to escape relegation & get another year of Premier League cash.

Ligue1 in France ended their season & named PSG, with a 12 point lead, champions. Now the league is already facing a lawsuit from one of the relegated teams.

I guess my point is that despite the pandemic, there are no shortage of people or organizations, putting their interests first.

Hockey different image right. Cool conditions, humid heat of summer, cold of ice, body sweat, close contact sport. Spells ideal for spread of virus. If one of those guys get Covid19 it will spread thru both benches in one game. Not the same but similar to those meat packing plants compared to regular factory job. Way higher risk

[jkr]

The AHL has cancelled the rest of the season & playoffs.

theahl.com/ahl-cancels-remainder-of-season

[seventeen]

May 9, 2020 6:52:30 GMT -5 GNick99 said:

Figured it was over money the way the they were acting. After they tried to move the draft to get a high tv rating before the other sports get started.

They don't have to act like that. Players haven't skated for 2 months. To quarantine them from their families and put them at risk to the virus, on top of a condensed schedule? It is out and out greed! All the players are multi millionaires and most owners are billionaires. Bettman would sell his soul to the devil for a dollar, then sell tickets to the event for .25 cents.

The love of money is the root of all evil....

I saw this thing going around cyber space....No more billionaires. As soon as someone hits $999,999,999, every dollar they make gets taken away. Is that socialism? Maybe, but if one cent less than a billion isn't enough for a person (inflation protected of course) there's something wrong.

It's all in the details, of course. A billion in asets, not income. Too easy to manipulate income. They'd hide assets too, naturally, but they they might not be able to enjoy them.

[folatre]

May 11, 2020 10:40:53 GMT -5 jkr said:

The AHL has cancelled the rest of the season & playoffs.

theahl.com/ahl-cancels-remainder-of-season

Unfortunately, with television money being essentially negligible, there was no way forward in 2019-20. In the A teams generate about 4/5 of their revenue from the gate and the rest from sponsorship.

I am sure that many stakeholders are already feeling worried about the viability of the 2020-21 AHL season if fans are not allowed at the games or if fans simply decide it is too soon to come back.

It could be that not all 31 AHL franchises start the season if the finances do not add up.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

[Boston_Habs]

The NHL is in a serious bind. Of the roughly $4 billion in annual "hockey related revenues", fully 70% of that is arena related (gate, suites, sponsorships/ads, concessions, merch, etc.). The remaining 30% is TV money, which is split roughly 50/50 between national and local TV deals.

So assuming you could keep the tv money and play without fans, that would bet at most $1.3bn to share across 31 teams. Assuming a 50/50 split between players and owners, that comes to about $20 million per team for player salaries. And even THAT assumes you could convince all the teams with lucrative local deals to throw that money into the pot to help out the rest of the league. With an $80 million salary cap, the players would be looking at a 75% pay cut for next year.

It's ugly. At least the NFL, NBA, and MLB are dealing with much higher levels of TV money. For the NFL it's a huge number and the MLB/NBA it's something like 60%, so the scenario of playing without fans for a year is less painful for those sports.

Besides a massive pay cut for the players, the NHL needs to figure out if they can run a league on a budget that is 30% of normal. Can they even cover all the non-player costs? Is it easier to just shut the whole thing down for 2020-21?

[folatre]

Supposedly the NHL generated $5.05 billion worth of revenue in 2018-19, and now they are facing the prospect of losing $1 billion if the season is ultimately cancelled. Like you say, Boston, things get ugly quickly.

Most of the Canadian clubs and the big American clubs (Rangers, Bruins, Blackhawks, Flyers) have very rich local tv deals. Montreal reaps about $85 million USD from all television streams (though the local is worth approximately double the national). But many teams south of the border have local Fox deals worth about 1/6 of what Molson hauls in from that mega-deal TSN/RDS was forced to pony up to keep the local rights to Habs games.

Basically, it is not surprising that an owner like Dundon said a few weeks ago that he is vehemently opposed to starting a 2020-21 season without fans because he claims his operating losses in a season without fans would reach into the mid tens of millions.

[jkr]

I'm puzzled about what Dundon wants. He doesn't want games without fans but aren't any games better than nothing?

Or does he want people back in the seats? It's going to be a while before that happens.

[folatre]

Dundon almost surely would argue that he wants a major player compensation rollback to take place if the league plays a portion or all of 2020-21 without fans. For him, hockey is not a hobby that he is okay losing money on, so if he is spending $100 million (player salaries, health care and other benefits, front office costs, scouting, travel, etc.) and is only bringing in $30 million from television and perhaps another $10 million from merchandise and sponsorship that doesn't depend on the arena being open to the public then he would very likely prefer Bettman keep the lights off while allowing owners to invoke the force majeure clause in league contracts.

[franko]

May 12, 2020 16:37:27 GMT -5 folatre said:

Dundon almost surely would argue that he wants a major player compensation rollback to take place if the league plays a portion or all of 2020-21 without fans. For him, hockey is not a hobby that he is okay losing money on, so if he is spending $100 million (player salaries, health care and other benefits, front office costs, scouting, travel, etc.) and is only bringing in $30 million from television and perhaps another $10 million from merchandise and sponsorship that doesn't depend on the arena being open to the public then he would very likely prefer Bettman keep the lights off while allowing owners to invoke the force majeure clause in league contracts.

So do the Canadian owners get that 75% wage subsidy for the players?

[GNick99]

May 12, 2020 11:59:24 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

The NHL is in a serious bind. Of the roughly $4 billion in annual "hockey related revenues", fully 70% of that is arena related (gate, suites, sponsorships/ads, concessions, merch, etc.). The remaining 30% is TV money, which is split roughly 50/50 between national and local TV deals.

So assuming you could keep the tv money and play without fans, that would bet at most $1.3bn to share across 31 teams. Assuming a 50/50 split between players and owners, that comes to about $20 million per team for player salaries. And even THAT assumes you could convince all the teams with lucrative local deals to throw that money into the pot to help out the rest of the league. With an $80 million salary cap, the players would be looking at a 75% pay cut for next year.

It's ugly. At least the NFL, NBA, and MLB are dealing with much higher levels of TV money. For the NFL it's a huge number and the MLB/NBA it's something like 60%, so the scenario of playing without fans for a year is less painful for those sports.

Besides a massive pay cut for the players, the NHL needs to figure out if they can run a league on a budget that is 30% of normal. Can they even cover all the non-player costs? Is it easier to just shut the whole thing down for 2020-21?

I could tell by way Bettman was acting it was massive but did not know to what extent. For Bettman was scouring at every angle to squeeze out a dollar. Moving the Draft up to get the spotlight be an example. I am quite sure he did this after seeing he ratings from the NFL Draft. It would be a financial gain, but not huge. He would have to make major changes to the Draft rules and ram it down clubs throats for little financial gain. He had to be scrambling.

Given the money the league and players have made over last 25 years or so it is not something I would have done. I would be leaning towards not playing this season/playoffs. Let it slide, call good enough - good enough and take little risk. The 2020-21 season? If has to be played in empty arenas would players go year unpaid? I see it as playing hockey in cold damp arenas would make ideal spreading grounds for Covid. I know summer slows down the spread, but if one guy gets the virus he will infected others at fast rates. Odds are low a player will get it, summer, and testing, etc.... But if one did the result is too catastrophic for me to risk. That is just my view.

Baseball I see as different. Games are played outside, during height of summer under full affect of UV rays. If a player gets Covid the spread would be slowed greatly. But still occur yes. Baseball owners were talking on making a pitch to the players on Mid-June spring training restart. With season opening July 4th. Play around 90 games, but against only teams in each own division. For example, Blue Jays would play AL East teams, and NL East teams only. To cut down on the travel. Travel is a major spreading point for the disease. This I can see more than what Bettman is doing. I see him playing with fire based on financial reasons.

[folatre]

David Andrews, the outgoing AHL boss, said the reality is that the league will not open with 31 teams next season if the public cannot return. The dozen teams not owned and run by NHL clubs would simply have no interest whatsoever in absorbing losses. And it is speculated that many NHL owners who own and operate AHL franchises would balk at adding AHL losses on top of the losses that some NHL clubs may incur if part of the 2020-21 is played without fans.

[Skilly]

May 12, 2020 16:37:27 GMT -5 folatre said:

Dundon almost surely would argue that he wants a major player compensation rollback to take place if the league plays a portion or all of 2020-21 without fans. For him, hockey is not a hobby that he is okay losing money on, so if he is spending $100 million (player salaries, health care and other benefits, front office costs, scouting, travel, etc.) and is only bringing in $30 million from television and perhaps another $10 million from merchandise and sponsorship that doesn't depend on the arena being open to the public then he would very likely prefer Bettman keep the lights off while allowing owners to invoke the force majeure clause in league contracts.

Bergevin's front end loaded contract doesn't seem so foolish now, does it ….