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Post by Skilly on May 14, 2020 12:55:43 GMT -5
I've analyzed this 6 ways to Sunday, and if they are going to start the season up, there is only one way to do it that can be considered any amount of "fair"
My start-up plan, would first level the standings. Each teams points up to 68 games is all that counts towards the standings. Yes this has so minor flaws, but it prevents the need to play anymore regular season games. The strongest argument for me against doing this, is that some teams played stronger/weaker teams earlier in the season and are missing out playing the weaker/stronger teams now. But something has to be done.
Then the top 6 teams in each division make the playoffs. The only team with any real gripe, is the NY Rangers, but the Islanders have 2 games in hand on them
The top two teams in each division get a bye … then the bottom 4 playoff for the final 4 spots in a 3 out of 5 format
Then based on points You slide them into the normal playoff seeds
Hockey in August, and the regular season starts in late November (if the covid protocols allow all this to occur, of course)
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Post by folatre on May 14, 2020 13:59:01 GMT -5
Dundon almost surely would argue that he wants a major player compensation rollback to take place if the league plays a portion or all of 2020-21 without fans. For him, hockey is not a hobby that he is okay losing money on, so if he is spending $100 million (player salaries, health care and other benefits, front office costs, scouting, travel, etc.) and is only bringing in $30 million from television and perhaps another $10 million from merchandise and sponsorship that doesn't depend on the arena being open to the public then he would very likely prefer Bettman keep the lights off while allowing owners to invoke the force majeure clause in league contracts. Bergevin's front end loaded contract doesn't seem so foolish now, does it …. Skilly, are you referring to player contracts that Bergevin negotiated or are you actually talking about the structure of Bergevin's own compensation? |
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Post by folatre on May 14, 2020 21:58:42 GMT -5
Your plan is good, Skilly. However, I sincerely doubt that Bettman and Daly, who call New York City home, are going to green light a format that leaves the Rangers outside while Montreal and Buffalo make the cut.
In a conventional season, one division can occupy five of the eight playoffs spots in a conference. So it seems easy for the league to say no problem if the Metro earns seven slots and the Atlantic only five.
Today Friedman in his weekly column speculated about whether the Montreal Canadiens organization would prefer to be in a lottery with a 6 percent of winning Lafreniere or participate in a playoff match up.
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Post by seventeen on May 14, 2020 23:55:06 GMT -5
Dundon almost surely would argue that he wants a major player compensation rollback to take place if the league plays a portion or all of 2020-21 without fans. For him, hockey is not a hobby that he is okay losing money on, so if he is spending $100 million (player salaries, health care and other benefits, front office costs, scouting, travel, etc.) and is only bringing in $30 million from television and perhaps another $10 million from merchandise and sponsorship that doesn't depend on the arena being open to the public then he would very likely prefer Bettman keep the lights off while allowing owners to invoke the force majeure clause in league contracts. Bergevin's front end loaded contract doesn't seem so foolish now, does it …. Not the front ended part, but the compensation part was as dumb as it gets. |
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Post by GNick99 on May 15, 2020 6:17:31 GMT -5
Seems like it chances day to day. Yesterday on Tim and Sid they were saying potential to scrap rest of regular season and jump right to playoffs. Ranging from 8 to 24 clubs. Played in hub cities. With 1 hub city if 8 teams to 4 or 5 if 24 clubs get into playoffs. Each team would have their own hotel within walking distance to the rink. It would cut down on the travel. The BC Premier has made an offer to host the hub cities in his province.
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Post by GNick99 on May 15, 2020 6:37:41 GMT -5
David Andrews, the outgoing AHL boss, said the reality is that the league will not open with 31 teams next season if the public cannot return. The dozen teams not owned and run by NHL clubs would simply have no interest whatsoever in absorbing losses. And it is speculated that many NHL owners who own and operate AHL franchises would balk at adding AHL losses on top of the losses that some NHL clubs may incur if part of the 2020-21 is played without fans. It seems to be a dire situation in some places. I heard last night a WHL team had filed for bankruptcy. Either Portland or Tri City forget now. The NHL will need to support the AHL next year. Cannot play with a farm system. How will this affect player's salaries? Many unknowns out there. Ian Bremmer said yesterday we are headed for first depression in our lifetimes. Not really great news. I follow Warren Buffett he has liquated many of his assets and is holding a large sum of cash. Well, he said in short term TB and GICs. So, not really a ringing endorsement for the financial future is it? Mark Cuban who I follow also says the market if over valued. It could get much worse. That's three pretty big hitters who are not talking positive of our future. |
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Post by Skilly on May 15, 2020 10:55:48 GMT -5
Bergevin's front end loaded contract doesn't seem so foolish now, does it …. Not the front ended part, but the compensation part was as dumb as it gets. I'll never understand that $807.00 |
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Post by Skilly on May 15, 2020 11:00:51 GMT -5
Your plan is good, Skilly. However, I sincerely doubt that Bettman and Daly, who call New York City home, are going to green light a format that leaves the Rangers outside while Montreal and Buffalo make the cut. In a conventional season, one division can occupy five of the eight playoffs spots in a conference. So it seems easy for the league to say no problem if the Metro earns seven slots and the Atlantic only five. Today Friedman in his weekly column speculated about whether the Montreal Canadiens organization would prefer to be in a lottery with a 6 percent of winning Lafreniere or participate in a playoff match up. Apparently the most common scenario talked about at the league level, would find Montreal playing Pittsburgh in the first round of the "playoffs". So it seems the league isn't looking at it from a divisional standpoint, but from a top 12 standpoint (which means the Rangers would make it). And according to LeBrun, some league execs are up in arms that Montreal would make it at all, based on point spread they would have with their first round opponent. |
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Post by jkr on May 15, 2020 11:32:16 GMT -5
I'm not following this closely so excuse my ignorance. If the regular season had played out, Montreal doesnt make it.
How could they possibly be in the mix now? The whole scenario is open to accusations of favoritism & rigging. Few people would see it as legitimate.
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Post by folatre on May 15, 2020 11:33:53 GMT -5
I would not blame Pittsburgh for being salty over such a proposal. They would miss the first round bye the smallest of margins and have to risk everything in a short series against a team (Montreal) that was 15 points behind them.
Nothing is perfect in this type of situation. For me, though, 24 teams is too many from a safety standpoint as well as from a competition standpoint. If, for instance, the league went with 20 teams that would be sufficient to create an entirely new wildcard preliminary round whose television rights could be granted to local broadcasters who lost a few regular season games at the end of the season. And the league could then at least go ahead and hold the main draft lottery with 11 teams (probabilities would need to be slightly tweaked since there would not be the normal 15 in the lottery).
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Post by BadCompany on May 15, 2020 12:34:32 GMT -5
I would not blame Pittsburgh for being salty over such a proposal. They would miss the first round bye the smallest of margins and have to risk everything in a short series against a team (Montreal) that was 15 points behind them. Nothing is perfect in this type of situation. For me, though, 24 teams is too many from a safety standpoint as well as from a competition standpoint. If, for instance, the league went with 20 teams that would be sufficient to create an entirely new wildcard preliminary round whose television rights could be granted to local broadcasters who lost a few regular season games at the end of the season. And the league could then at least go ahead and hold the main draft lottery with 11 teams (probabilities would need to be slightly tweaked since there would not be the normal 15 in the lottery). To play Devil's Advocate, if you go with 20 teams I'm guessing you mean 10 in each Conference. But in the East the team in 11th place is the Florida Panthers, who are 1 point behind #10, with a game in hand. So it's not really fair to them to have them miss when they weren't given a level playing field. But if you expand that to 11 teams make the playoffs, to include Florida, then you have a problem in the West, where the 11th place team, Arizona, has a mere 2 point lead on the 12th place team, Chicago. If we're going to include Florida because they were 1 point behind, why are we excluding Chicago when they are 2 points behind? So if you want to make it fair (and balanced) you'd have to include Chicago, which means 12 teams make it... which means Montreal, as the 12th team in the East, would make it. One way to fix that would be to play a few last regular season games, to balance it out. But not only is that a logistical nightmare, it also means you're bringing 31 teams/organizations to your non-Corona sites, upping your risks exponentially. And even if you are okay with that, how do you guarantee fair competition? If you're a team that is out of these playoffs no matter what who are you going to send and/or play? Certainly not your stars, right? Why risk injury/health and more importantly, draft position, just to play 2 meaningless games to balance out the schedule? What kind of lineup would Montreal ice, for example, if they were out of the playoffs, and only had to play 2 or 3 games? Forget seeing Price, Weber, Petry, Gallagher, Drouin, Domi, etc.. They'd ice a pre-season lineup - if that. Which kind of isn't fair to teams actually trying to get in, right? "How come they got to play the Laval Rocket to make it into the playoffs, and we had to play against Tampa?"
It's going to be a mess no matter how they do it. Maybe the best way to do it would be a March Madness style, one-and-done elimination tournament. Everybody is in, 1 plays 31, 2 plays 30, and so on. Yeah, it sucks in an "on any given Sunday" kind of way, and there would be a boatload of asterisks in the history books, but it certainly would be thrilling to watch, no? The Hockey Hunger Games. "Trending on Twitter, Detroit has a 2-1 lead on Boston in the third. Boston has out-shot Detroit 47-10, but Jonathan Bernier has stood on his head. Tune in now to catch the thrilling final 5 minutes!" |
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Post by jkr on May 15, 2020 12:55:48 GMT -5
Or maybe play short series leading up to a 7 game Final.
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Post by folatre on May 15, 2020 13:40:05 GMT -5
BC, for sure, there is no perfect arrangement. Twenty-four teams would not be the end of the world but it would not totally eliminate someone crying unfair. In particular, the owners of the forlorn Buffalo Sabres who have missed the playoffs like nine consecutive years would surely scream if Montreal made it (Sabres are three points behind with two games in hand and two of their postponed games are against the Habs).
It is debatable. In sporting terms, I would rather leave out one team (Rangers or Florida) that had a modestly good season than include three (Chicago, Montreal, Arizona) that had poor seasons.
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Post by jkr on May 16, 2020 9:05:51 GMT -5
If anyone wants an idea what playing in an empty stadium looks like, Sportsnet is airing a Bundesliga game right now. They almost never bother with the German league but they need meaningful content & the league is resuming today.
It looks strange and with the absence of fans, the silence is almost eerie.
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Post by seventeen on May 16, 2020 13:24:38 GMT -5
BC, for sure, there is no perfect arrangement. Twenty-four teams would not be the end of the world but it would not totally eliminate someone crying unfair. In particular, the owners of the forlorn Buffalo Sabres who have missed the playoffs like nine consecutive years would surely scream if Montreal made it (Sabres are three points behind with two games in hand and two of their postponed games are against the Habs). It is debatable. In sporting terms, I would rather leave out one team (Rangers or Florida) that had a modestly good season than include three (Chicago, Montreal, Arizona) that had poor seasons. Why not make the playoffs a 32 team affair (once Seattle joins)? We already consider the regular season meaningless, so this would just make it official. That way every GM could crow that their team ALWAYS made the playoffs. Yes, I'm being silly, but it's pathetic what they can dream up when money is on the line. I don't have an issue with a number of teams being guaranteed spots (those that obviously would have made it anyway) and a wild card system to make up the remaining 16 minus that aforementioned group. Then those left over are out. I could probably come up with some algorithm involving both winning percentage and goal differential to make up that middle wild card group. My guess is all those teams from Arizona on down would be in that eliminated group. |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 16, 2020 18:58:55 GMT -5
BC, for sure, there is no perfect arrangement. Twenty-four teams would not be the end of the world but it would not totally eliminate someone crying unfair. In particular, the owners of the forlorn Buffalo Sabres who have missed the playoffs like nine consecutive years would surely scream if Montreal made it (Sabres are three points behind with two games in hand and two of their postponed games are against the Habs). It is debatable. In sporting terms, I would rather leave out one team (Rangers or Florida) that had a modestly good season than include three (Chicago, Montreal, Arizona) that had poor seasons. Why not make the playoffs a 32 team affair (once Seattle joins)? We already consider the regular season meaningless, so this would just make it official. That way every GM could crow that their team ALWAYS made the playoffs. Yes, I'm being silly, but it's pathetic what they can dream up when money is on the line. I don't have an issue with a number of teams being guaranteed spots (those that obviously would have made it anyway) and a wild card system to make up the remaining 16 minus that aforementioned group. Then those left over are out. I could probably come up with some algorithm involving both winning percentage and goal differential to make up that middle wild card group. My guess is all those teams from Arizona on down would be in that eliminated group. Only fair wat, top 16 teams playoff bound. Bottom 15 teams play a tournament .......golf No fans and nobody watches. Sit Bettman on a swing over a barrel and throw softballs ata target to dunk him. Molson is the expert on softballs answering questions like “do you like the new menu in the stadium?” |
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Post by GNick99 on May 17, 2020 6:04:43 GMT -5
If anyone wants an idea what playing in an empty stadium looks like, Sportsnet is airing a Bundesliga game right now. They almost never bother with the German league but they need meaningful content & the league is resuming today. It looks strange and with the absence of fans, the silence is almost eerie. Mark Cuban was on CNBC other day, saying they may mike up more players so viewers could get more emotion on the court. They are trying everything to get sports back but not close yet as safety of players. Sounds like travel is definitely out. Going to be different, no fans, no home arenas. |
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Post by Skilly on May 17, 2020 15:12:50 GMT -5
BC, for sure, there is no perfect arrangement. Twenty-four teams would not be the end of the world but it would not totally eliminate someone crying unfair. In particular, the owners of the forlorn Buffalo Sabres who have missed the playoffs like nine consecutive years would surely scream if Montreal made it (Sabres are three points behind with two games in hand and two of their postponed games are against the Habs). It is debatable. In sporting terms, I would rather leave out one team (Rangers or Florida) that had a modestly good season than include three (Chicago, Montreal, Arizona) that had poor seasons. I think everybody agrees that there is no way anymore regular season games will occur. They can't go on points, because teams have played uneven numbers of games. So there are only two ways to proceed. Points percentage , or normalize the number of games played. The league doesn't seems to like points percentage , but even if they went that way, Montreal is ahead of Buffalo. (Btw, NJ also has 68 points in 69 games and no one is worrying about them) To normalize the games, they would have to count only the first 68 games of each team's season, since that's currently the lowest games played by any team. Under that scenario, Buffalo loses 2 points since they won game #69. Montrèal lost game # 69, 70, and 71 ....so Montrèal would still have 71 points. Under any scenario Montreal beats out Buffalo; they have no gripe. |
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Post by jkr on May 17, 2020 18:42:46 GMT -5
Just saw this from Lebrun apparently that says that there will be regular season games played. And what about border restrictions? How do these non essential workers get back to Canada or wherever the games are played? puckprose.com/2020/05/17/nhl-moving-closer-expanded-stanley-cup-playoffs/I'm kind of embarrassed that the Habs have a shot. They played poorly, were not going to make it & certainly don't deserve to squeeze in under these scenarios. |
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Post by Tankdriver on May 17, 2020 22:54:08 GMT -5
I know some don't like the 24 team playoff idea, but if was only about 30 years ago that we had 16 teams get in with a 21 team league. Maybe it is time to start thinking about adding 2 extra teams in the future per conference. 7 vs 10 8 vs 9 in a best 2 of 3 over 3 days.
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Post by folatre on May 17, 2020 23:11:12 GMT -5
I want a 6 percent chance at Lafreniere more than a .5 percent chance at running the table on five rounds of playoff hockey to hoist the Cup.
Who knows what the league decides regarding playing some, all or none of the pending regular season games. And building off that decision, who knows what the league decides regarding a playoff format.
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Post by folatre on May 17, 2020 23:33:58 GMT -5
I know some don't like the 24 team playoff idea, but if was only about 30 years ago that we had 16 teams get in with a 21 team league. Maybe it is time to start thinking about adding 2 extra teams in the future per conference. 7 vs 10 8 vs 9 in a best 2 of 3 over 3 days. I could understand this, in particular in the context of comparing the NHL's 16 team playoff format in the 21 club era. If the league feels any affinity to this format idea, it may not be a bad moment to give it a test drive now. It creates a preliminary round which generates new revenue. It keeps the bar for qualifying relatively high from a sporting perspective. It would still allow the league to keep the divisional focus with the top three in each division avoiding the wildcard free for all; and of course this would likewise allow the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th seeds to be from the same division if that is how competitive merit worked. |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 18, 2020 7:48:15 GMT -5
BC, for sure, there is no perfect arrangement. Twenty-four teams would not be the end of the world but it would not totally eliminate someone crying unfair. In particular, the owners of the forlorn Buffalo Sabres who have missed the playoffs like nine consecutive years would surely scream if Montreal made it (Sabres are three points behind with two games in hand and two of their postponed games are against the Habs). It is debatable. In sporting terms, I would rather leave out one team (Rangers or Florida) that had a modestly good season than include three (Chicago, Montreal, Arizona) that had poor seasons. I think everybody agrees that there is no way anymore regular season games will occur. They can't go on points, because teams have played uneven numbers of games. So there are only two ways to proceed. Points percentage , or normalize the number of games played. The league doesn't seems to like points percentage , but even if they went that way, Montreal is ahead of Buffalo. (Btw, NJ also has 68 points in 69 games and no one is worrying about them) To normalize the games, they would have to count only the first 68 games of each team's season, since that's currently the lowest games played by any team. Under that scenario, Buffalo loses 2 points since they won game #69. Montrèal lost game # 69, 70, and 71 ....so Montrèal would still have 71 points. Under any scenario Montreal beats out Buffalo; they have no gripe. Players are paid for the regular season but the playoffs are not linked to players negotiated salaries. Players get much less for playoff games. Greedy Bettman and owners. |
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Post by folatre on May 18, 2020 15:51:56 GMT -5
Normally, it would be the owners making hay in the playoffs since the gate value per game is notable and the players' playoff compensation is very negligible. However, this season there will be no playoff gate so in reality it is simply all about salvaging the playoff television money (approx. $400-450 million USD) and the players have plenty of self-interest involved because for every dollar that is lost (not recouped) the players will have to pay back 50 cents in the coming months and years.
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Post by BadCompany on May 19, 2020 8:25:07 GMT -5
Looks like the 24 team playoff format is gaining traction. Which means we will be in the playoffs.
Whoo-boy!
Of course the perfect scenario will be that they hold the June draft as Bettman wants, we win to move up to 4th overall (moving all the way up to #1 seems to be off the table now) - or even just stay in the top 10 - and then we go on a little playoff run. Say to round three or something. Just enough to get all that playoff experience, and sell any free agents, either our own or others, that we are indeed a team to reckon with.
I'm guessing (based on Pierre Lebrun's musings) that one of the main reasons for moving to a 24 team format is to include Montreal, New York, and Chicago, three of the biggest hockey markets in the league. Any other format would see all three of those teams eliminated. Of course they are also saying that they have to play at least a few of the remaining regular season games, which means there is still a chance that we could be passed by either of New Jersey or Buffalo.
I still don't know how they can do this logistically, but it sure looks like they are going to try.
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Post by jkr on May 19, 2020 9:31:08 GMT -5
They should go to 24 teams if it makes sense, not to include big market teams that weren't going to make it. It smacks of favoritism. They shouldn't be moving the goalposts (sorry for the football metaphor). It looks like they are doing people favors.
I find it embarrassing.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on May 19, 2020 10:21:37 GMT -5
If anyone wants an idea what playing in an empty stadium looks like, Sportsnet is airing a Bundesliga game right now. They almost never bother with the German league but they need meaningful content & the league is resuming today. It looks strange and with the absence of fans, the silence is almost eerie. I saw a bit of that and it was like you said ... eerie ... Cheers. |
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Post by BadCompany on May 19, 2020 10:30:05 GMT -5
They should go to 24 teams if it makes sense, not to include big market teams that weren't going to make it. It smacks of favoritism. They shouldn't be moving the goalposts (sorry for the football metaphor). It looks like they are doing people favors. I find it embarrassing.  It is embarrassing, but this is the NHL we're talking about here. They've repeatedly shut down the entire league to make some more money, so we've always known where their primary interests are. And now we know they're willing to risk the health of not just their players, but all their support staff, media, and arena crews, (some of whom won't fall into the " oh-but-they're-elite-athletes-the-virus-won't-affect-them-category"). Again, for money. IF they do go to a 24 team playoff format, and IF it works well, don't be surprised if 24 teams in the playoffs becomes the new norm. |
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Post by frozone on May 19, 2020 10:47:53 GMT -5
They should go to 24 teams if it makes sense, not to include big market teams that weren't going to make it. It smacks of favoritism. They shouldn't be moving the goalposts (sorry for the football metaphor). It looks like they are doing people favors. I find it embarrassing. That's why I dislike the 24 team plan... It looks like they're doing people favours, when they're really not. Especially for Montreal. Not only do we lose the opportunity to host the draft, but we also lose the chance to draft 1st overall, and we walk into the playoffs after having been deadline sellers. Not to mention, in that very remote scenario in which we win the cup, might as well let Captain Shea hoist a big, shiny asterisk. |
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Post by Skilly on May 19, 2020 12:10:34 GMT -5
They should go to 24 teams if it makes sense, not to include big market teams that weren't going to make it. It smacks of favoritism. They shouldn't be moving the goalposts (sorry for the football metaphor). It looks like they are doing people favors. I find it embarrassing. Well with the unbalanced schedule, going to 24 teams does make sense. Right now, Montreal has 11 games remaining, and even though the odds of them making a comeback is slim, there is that small chance. Add to that that Montreal's schedule is a little easier than say Toronto's, and the argument that Montreal played most of their "tough" games earlier comes into play. Montreal has 5 of 11 games against teams behind them in the standings, and 3 against teams that are the next step above them. Only Nashville, Colorado, and Chicago are games outside that definition, and the Predator and BlackHawk games are very winnable. Montreal could very conceivably go 9-2 or 10-1 …. just based on current records. Now if the playoffs do go ahead, and if Montreal ARE in them. I do not want to hear a peep about Carey Price being tired. This playoffs should put a muzzle on all that talk and will show us a blueprint on how to proceed. Is a rested Carey Price worth 2 wins per series? This will boost the need for a good back-up argument. Can a balanced scoring attack win, or do we need that elite point producer? I am willing to bet that no one wants to play a rested Carey Price on his game … |
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