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Post by GNick99 on Sept 12, 2020 19:50:32 GMT -5
If gate is zero or drastically reduced in 2020-21, the cap is going to stay flat beyond the next two seasons which have already been confirmed. This is not going to put much of a damper on what the Pietrangelos, Halls, and Krugs of the world get next month, but guys like Tatar, Danault, among dozens of other around the league, should think long and hard about grabbing security if the overall numbers are fair. It’s crazy but the financial climate could actually be much grimmer come the summer of 2021 if the league sees revenue decline compared the stress points already hit revenue wise in 2019-20. Owners will likely lose far more real money in 2020-21 than they did in 2019-20 (e.g. Geoff Molson only lost four home dates so he basically made what he forecast to make), so if Bergevin is offering Danault 5/23.5 and Tatar 4/21 and they want to say no thanks and bet on themselves, then that is their right but I would question their judgment, in particular if Bergevin has the first come first served signed in front of his office. If no gate/concessions going to hit Habs hard. They had 93 million in ticket sales and 54 million in concessions last year. |
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Post by folatre on Sept 12, 2020 20:37:26 GMT -5
True, though no gate is more calamitous for clubs that only earn between $6-10 million annually on their local tv deals. Montreal can probably cover its expenditures with television, advertising, and merchandise. There are quite a few clubs who literally prefer not to play 2020-21 without gate because it means finishing deep, deep in the red.
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Post by seventeen on Sept 13, 2020 0:52:36 GMT -5
Gee....really rich people not earning any money. I feel for their employees, but otherwise....
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Post by GNick99 on Sept 13, 2020 5:50:28 GMT -5
True, though no gate is more calamitous for clubs that only earn between $6-10 million annually on their local tv deals. Montreal can probably cover its expenditures with television, advertising, and merchandise. There are quite a few clubs who literally prefer not to play 2020-21 without gate because it means finishing deep, deep in the red. French Canadians open the pocket books for their hockey. It helps Geoff Molson greatly. Very smart man. But it hurts on ice. We have to be more prevalent to french coaches, GMs, Drouin type trades. It's all about the money! |
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Sept 13, 2020 7:53:11 GMT -5
I kinda think that MB is not looking at the UFA but more teams that have to move players because of cap issues. He is loaded up with picks and is now working on getting depth that will make other assets expendable.I expect a couple of more trades before you see what next seasons team will look like
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Post by Willie Dog on Sept 13, 2020 11:31:04 GMT -5
I kinda think that MB is not looking at the UFA but more teams that have to move players because of cap issues. He is loaded up with picks and is now working on getting depth that will make other assets expendable.I expect a couple of more trades before you see what next seasons team will look like I expect him to move picks and young guys like Evans Poehling Juulsen Mete or Fleury for some middling forward... |
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Post by GNick99 on Sept 14, 2020 8:15:38 GMT -5
I kinda think that MB is not looking at the UFA but more teams that have to move players because of cap issues. He is loaded up with picks and is now working on getting depth that will make other assets expendable.I expect a couple of more trades before you see what next seasons team will look like I don't know what he is going to do? But he is certainly active early. He can have those summers where he makes multiply major trades. Subban/Shaw/Radulov one summer, then Pacioretty/Galchrnyuk/Armia trades another summer. He needs scoring wingers. Maybe a Dadanov? I hope he is not an impact player as he can't come here. Maybe a Danault for Ehlers type trade? Domi and Chiarot for Gaudreau? Don't know? |
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Post by seventeen on Sept 14, 2020 15:35:10 GMT -5
Activity galore. Yet the team missed the playoffs too often. If you measured success by activity or by minutes spent on the phone, MB would be a rockstar. Need an elite guy on defense. Need a scoring winger. Hopefully next year's roster will include those guys.
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Post by GNick99 on Sept 15, 2020 22:37:00 GMT -5
Friedman was on overtime intermission tonight. Said Habs working on contract with Edmundson. Way he talked could be bigger than I thought. I didn't get a great impression.
He also said Wild signed Brodin long term tonight. Expect to start hearing Dumba rumours. As Wild be in expansion trouble if they don't move somebody this season.
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Post by GNick99 on Sept 18, 2020 17:56:39 GMT -5
Can't recall an off-season where so many big names available this early. Rumour has it OEL available. Another has Dumba available. Another Laine. Another Canucks paying big to move contracts. Hanifin, Greenway, Hjalmarsson. MAF, Debrusk, Faulk. No end to the trade rumours.
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Post by seventeen on Sept 18, 2020 18:32:19 GMT -5
The Cap is driving a fair bit of that. I know you had mentioned about how good an opportunity this was to use that CAP weapon. I hadn’t visualized Edmundson as an opportunity, but there’s still quite a bit of space.
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Post by folatre on Sept 18, 2020 22:30:30 GMT -5
In some cases it is clubs facing a cap crunch, in other it is clubs facing cash flow stress, and in yet other it is simply clubs trying to shake a roster up because what they were doing is just not working.
Adding this all together, there are indeed a lot of names being thrown around the league right now.
Bergevin cannot afford to do much else for 2020-21 unless Domi is moving on. And if he is committed to Gallagher, Danault, Tatar, and Petry then basically he will put Montreal's nose right up against the ceiling for 2021-22.
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Post by seventeen on Sept 19, 2020 0:00:17 GMT -5
One thing I keep forgetting to factor in is that Molson is going to lose a lot of revenue this year. I'm not sure how much tv income he gets but all those tickets, concessions, marketing etc (much of which would be sold at games) will disappear. There will be a lot of pressure on Bergevin to contain spending.
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Post by GNick99 on Sept 19, 2020 5:08:54 GMT -5
In some cases it is clubs facing a cap crunch, in other it is clubs facing cash flow stress, and in yet other it is simply clubs trying to shake a roster up because what they were doing is just not working. Adding this all together, there are indeed a lot of names being thrown around the league right now. Bergevin cannot afford to do much else for 2020-21 unless Domi is moving on. And if he is committed to Gallagher, Danault, Tatar, and Petry then basically he will put Montreal's nose right up against the ceiling for 2021-22. Maybe another winger, but can't see Habs making a big move. Seems like he is going for depth instead of quality. Condensed schedule imagine why. Maybe add a Killorn or Anderson for 2nd. I predict |
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Post by Willie Dog on Sept 19, 2020 8:33:46 GMT -5
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Post by folatre on Sept 19, 2020 9:50:21 GMT -5
Man, I really do not want Bergevin doing Tampa any more favours when they are facing a cap crunch. Killorn has way too much term remaining for a 31 year old player. Also, my guess is that he regresses to the mean, his career goal scoring average is nothing like what he produced this season.
I want Anderson because he is the right age and the right kind of winger to help the Habs. However, in a trade scenario, a second round pick probably will not get it done. It would be great to steal Anderson via an offer sheet, but Kekalainen is likely savvy enough to trade Anderson somewhere before October 9th because Columbus loses if Anderson signs a 5 year/$21.5 million offer sheet replete with signing bonuses and the Blue Jackets merely pocket a 2021 second rounder. Bergevin should try to bully Kekalainen this month and make it clear an offer sheet is coming on contractual terms that Kekalainen's bosses probably do not to swallow, so let's sit down and hammer out a trade.
Wow, Pietrangelo must feel a little sour about Armstrong not offering him Jusi money. Of course, Armstrong would contend that the world changed since Nashville gave their captain that deal, but from Pietrangelo's perspective he is elite and he may as well see if the market, which will be depressed for middle class players, is robust for the top guys. Armstrong is a good GM, but man that contract he gave Faulk looks really stupid right about now.
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Post by seventeen on Sept 19, 2020 12:38:32 GMT -5
Man, I really do not want Bergevin doing Tampa any more favours when they are facing a cap crunch. Killorn has way too much term remaining for a 31 year old player. Also, my guess is that he regresses to the mean, his career goal scoring average is nothing like what he produced this season. I want Anderson because he is the right age and the right kind of winger to help the Habs. However, in a trade scenario, a second round pick probably will not get it done. It would be great to steal Anderson via an offer sheet, but Kekalainen is likely savvy enough to trade Anderson somewhere before October 9th because Columbus loses if Anderson signs a 5 year/$21.5 million offer sheet replete with signing bonuses and the Blue Jackets merely pocket a 2021 second rounder. Bergevin should try to bully Kekalainen this month and make it clear an offer sheet is coming on contractual terms that Kekalainen's bosses probably do not to swallow, so let's sit down and hammer out a trade. Wow, Pietrangelo must feel a little sour about Armstrong not offering him Jusi money. Of course, Armstrong would contend that the world changed since Nashville gave their captain that deal, but from Pietrangelo's perspective he is elite and he may as well see if the market, which will be depressed for middle class players, is robust for the top guys. Armstrong is a good GM, but man that contract he gave Faulk looks really stupid right about now. I have a feeling that Armstrong thought Pietrangelo might go this route. At the time of the Faulk deal it didn't make sense....AP, Parayko and FAulk ALL rhd?! Unless, of course, you thought you might only end up with two of them by the start of next season. Faulk was insurance. Was it the right move? Time will tell, as the saying goes. Kind of reminds me of the Alzner signing before serious negotiations started with Markov. It doesn't set the table for honest haggling. |
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Post by Cranky on Sept 20, 2020 0:53:47 GMT -5
Pietrangelo probably wants north of 10 million. Probably the Laffs will do it and trade nylander.
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Post by PTH on Sept 20, 2020 2:15:09 GMT -5
Pietrangelo probably wants north of 10 million. Probably the Laffs will do it and trade nylander. Having guys like him hitting free agency around 30 is why I want bridge contracts: it's going to be very difficult for St-Louis to let him go, and the pressure to keep him will be huge, but once over 30 you can't tell which guy will be a Chelios and which will be a Niinimaa (ie, rapid, sudden drop-off). |
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Post by GNick99 on Sept 20, 2020 6:42:38 GMT -5
Man, I really do not want Bergevin doing Tampa any more favours when they are facing a cap crunch. Killorn has way too much term remaining for a 31 year old player. Also, my guess is that he regresses to the mean, his career goal scoring average is nothing like what he produced this season. I want Anderson because he is the right age and the right kind of winger to help the Habs. However, in a trade scenario, a second round pick probably will not get it done. It would be great to steal Anderson via an offer sheet, but Kekalainen is likely savvy enough to trade Anderson somewhere before October 9th because Columbus loses if Anderson signs a 5 year/$21.5 million offer sheet replete with signing bonuses and the Blue Jackets merely pocket a 2021 second rounder. Bergevin should try to bully Kekalainen this month and make it clear an offer sheet is coming on contractual terms that Kekalainen's bosses probably do not to swallow, so let's sit down and hammer out a trade. Wow, Pietrangelo must feel a little sour about Armstrong not offering him Jusi money. Of course, Armstrong would contend that the world changed since Nashville gave their captain that deal, but from Pietrangelo's perspective he is elite and he may as well see if the market, which will be depressed for middle class players, is robust for the top guys. Armstrong is a good GM, but man that contract he gave Faulk looks really stupid right about now. I like Killorn. Think he is solid player. If can get him for a 2nd? Anymore I would pass though. A trade like that be prelude to trading Tatar at deadline. We in position to retain, so probably get a first for Tatar in March. Keep moving up with every trade. Eventually be elite team. Be solid dynasty team when get there though.Takes awhile to get there. Only make 2 or 3 or 4 trades a year. Gain only small increments. So, looking at many years. But like me investing or losing weight it will work. Put money in stocks, bit in mutuals, bit in real estate, then saved a bit each year. All small gains but multiply all 5 together, then multiply by 30 years. Going to equal huge cash gain. Example be, going to select Norlinder anyway. Traded down from 2nd to early 3rd, got a later round pick. Used that pick to get Nate Thompson. Got a year out of him, flipped him for late pick used that to get Edmunddon. Who we should get a 2nd for when Norlinder ready. So, from nothing, 6 years prior, got year out of Thompsin. 3 years out of Edmundson then a free 2nd. Get Killorn, or Anderson type from team looking for cap room. For a 2nd, it was free in Scandella deal. Same as Allen for nothing. Kovalchuk was a free 3rd for us. Get a year or two out of each. When Primeau ready flip him, Habs can retain so 2nd at a deadline. Killorn at trade deadline, retained, looking at a first. End up with free 1st and 2nd. Takes 2 or 3 years though. |
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Post by Cranky on Sept 20, 2020 13:12:54 GMT -5
Pietrangelo probably wants north of 10 million. Probably the Laffs will do it and trade nylander. Having guys like him hitting free agency around 30 is why I want bridge contracts: it's going to be very difficult for St-Louis to let him go, and the pressure to keep him will be huge, but once over 30 you can't tell which guy will be a Chelios and which will be a Niinimaa (ie, rapid, sudden drop-off). He's "probably" going to age well. He's been consistent and decline linearly much lime Weber. I would see if i could sign him for 10 million and flip Weber. He's a definite upgrade and good for at top 2 for about 5 years. Weber contract is on the verge of being untradable even if offered for a second. If weber doesn't have a good year, his value is negative. As we stand....our defense is good for one year or at most, two years at "decent" but nothing special. If Bbinz doesn't get creative NOW and none of the kids moves to top 4, we're in trouble. |
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Post by seventeen on Sept 20, 2020 15:20:57 GMT -5
Having guys like him hitting free agency around 30 is why I want bridge contracts: it's going to be very difficult for St-Louis to let him go, and the pressure to keep him will be huge, but once over 30 you can't tell which guy will be a Chelios and which will be a Niinimaa (ie, rapid, sudden drop-off). He's "probably" going to age well. He's been consistent and decline linearly much lime Weber. I would see if i could sign him for 10 million and flip Weber. He's a definite upgrade and good for at top 2 for about 5 years. Weber contract is on the verge of being untradable even if offered for a second. If weber doesn't have a good year, his value is negative. As we stand....our defense is good for one year or at most, two years at "decent" but nothing special. If Bbinz doesn't get creative NOW and none of the kids moves to top 4, we're in trouble. That's pretty much it. A pessimist might say that Petry is the only experienced transition dman on the team and he's prone to have more goals scored on him than you'd expect. Chiarot and Edmundson are average or slightly worse, Romanov is learning and Mete is too small. Weber is aging and injury prone. An optimist would see things differently, of course, but this current defense had better have everyone playing at their best and healthy. I don't like those odds. |
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Post by jkr on Sept 20, 2020 17:22:14 GMT -5
Man, I really do not want Bergevin doing Tampa any more favours when they are facing a cap crunch. Killorn has way too much term remaining for a 31 year old player. Also, my guess is that he regresses to the mean, his career goal scoring average is nothing like what he produced this season. I want Anderson because he is the right age and the right kind of winger to help the Habs. However, in a trade scenario, a second round pick probably will not get it done. It would be great to steal Anderson via an offer sheet, but Kekalainen is likely savvy enough to trade Anderson somewhere before October 9th because Columbus loses if Anderson signs a 5 year/$21.5 million offer sheet replete with signing bonuses and the Blue Jackets merely pocket a 2021 second rounder. Bergevin should try to bully Kekalainen this month and make it clear an offer sheet is coming on contractual terms that Kekalainen's bosses probably do not to swallow, so let's sit down and hammer out a trade. Wow, Pietrangelo must feel a little sour about Armstrong not offering him Jusi money. Of course, Armstrong would contend that the world changed since Nashville gave their captain that deal, but from Pietrangelo's perspective he is elite and he may as well see if the market, which will be depressed for middle class players, is robust for the top guys. Armstrong is a good GM, but man that contract he gave Faulk looks really stupid right about now. I posted an article I found about AP in the Out of Town thread and I will put it here. Pietrangelo doesn't sound bitter & leaves the door open to returning. Of course, that could be him being conciliatory. There's another thing to consider. I can't find much on Bouwmeester & I am forced to assume that with his age (37 in a few days) & his health issues that he is not coming back. If the Blues go into next season without those two, that's a huge hole www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/blues-pietrangelo-exploring-free-agency-may-best-sides/ |
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Post by PTH on Sept 20, 2020 21:16:58 GMT -5
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Post by folatre on Sept 20, 2020 22:06:13 GMT -5
Good find, PTH. I am glad now that it turned out that Duchene picked Nashville, but this is what I was talking about last summer. Between the RCA tool and the ability of guys who have established US residences to avoid most Canadian income tax on their signing bonuses, the tax factor is far less relevant than a number of lazy (or maybe they are just uninformed) media people commonly make it out to be.
Also, I perceive that at times the Canadiens organization has not gone out of its way to publicly dispel this misconception that is repeated in some many corners. I hate to say it but this could be because Molson and Bergevin may feel they benefit from a portion of the fan base rationalizing that 'oh well, what can the Habs do, players can't stand the taxes,' which builds in an excuse when they do not attract significant players.
I believe there are two factors that actually explain the problem Montreal faces. For many years my sense is that top guys have minimal interest in Montreal because Bergevin has not been able to articulate a winning vision to them. And secondly, there are the quality of life concerns for guys as it relates to worrying about kids and their education and how one's wife will get on without being proficient in French.
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Post by PTH on Sept 20, 2020 22:18:19 GMT -5
Good find, PTH. I am glad now that it turned out that Duchene picked Nashville, but this is what I was talking about last summer. Between the RCA tool and the ability of guys who have established US residences to avoid most Canadian income tax on their signing bonuses, the tax factor is far less relevant than a number of lazy (or maybe they are just uninformed) media people commonly make it out to be. I think the media is uninformed because they're lazy... I suspect the lack of high-end players counts for a lot more. I remember one guy wanting to be Koivu's winger, and he didn't sign because we couldn't guarantee a spot on that #1 line, but really, who else have we had in the meantime that someone would be excited to play with ? We can hope Suzuki and Kotkaniemi break that pattern, but would a guy sign in the hope of playing with Pacioretty or Galchenyuk ? Or even Gallagher ? Nothing against Gallagher, but he creates through hard work, and most high-end players like to think they can win through creativity, and can expect to give or get a surprise pass at any moment. Same on D. Weber is a fine defenseman, but no one expects him to thread a surprise pass to an open guy in the slot, on a play no one else saw... |
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Post by folatre on Sept 20, 2020 22:35:44 GMT -5
For sure, what you are saying about guys thinking about 'well who am I going to play with' is similar to what I mean when I say Bergevin has struggled to sell his roster as a contender to guys on the outside looking in.
And now that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi may be turning some heads and changing the perception about the Habs' future, it will be interesting see if Bergevin can find a way to get those two kids better wingers. I would contend that he will have to be resourceful (maybe offer sheets and trades) because with the flat cap future he will not really be able to sign a Hoffman or Dadanov, let alone Hall, unless he plans to move on from one of his 2021 UFAs.
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Post by PTH on Sept 20, 2020 23:14:57 GMT -5
For sure, what you are saying about guys thinking about 'well who am I going to play with' is similar to what I mean when I say Bergevin has struggled to sell his roster as a contender to guys on the outside looking in. And now that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi may be turning some heads and changing the perception about the Habs' future, it will be interesting see if Bergevin can find a way to get those two kids better wingers. I would contend that he will have to be resourceful (maybe offer sheets and trades) because with the flat cap future he will not really be able to sign a Hoffman or Dadanov, let alone Hall, unless he plans to move on from one of his 2021 UFAs. Frankly, I don't see how hanging onto all those UFAs could be a winning strategy; none of them is improving, at best they maintain current production for the first couple of years, but after that it'll be downhill, and we'd only have improvement from KK and Suzuki and Romanov to try and become a better team... and while I think they will be good, I don't see us having much of a window to anything before Price and Weber are slowing down to such an extent that organic improvement won't keep up. Which is why I'd be happy to move Domi for a Petry-replacement, and move Petry for various futures if we can't get help up front for him, and only keep 2 of the 3 forwards. The flat cap might have some weird effects though, making guys accept shorter-term deals in the hope of cashing in as UFAs in 2-3 years when perhaps more money is available. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Sept 21, 2020 9:16:54 GMT -5
For sure, what you are saying about guys thinking about 'well who am I going to play with' is similar to what I mean when I say Bergevin has struggled to sell his roster as a contender to guys on the outside looking in. And now that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi may be turning some heads and changing the perception about the Habs' future, it will be interesting see if Bergevin can find a way to get those two kids better wingers. I would contend that he will have to be resourceful (maybe offer sheets and trades) because with the flat cap future he will not really be able to sign a Hoffman or Dadanov, let alone Hall, unless he plans to move on from one of his 2021 UFAs. Frankly, I don't see how hanging onto all those UFAs could be a winning strategy; none of them is improving, at best they maintain current production for the first couple of years, but after that it'll be downhill, and we'd only have improvement from KK and Suzuki and Romanov to try and become a better team... and while I think they will be good, I don't see us having much of a window to anything before Price and Weber are slowing down to such an extent that organic improvement won't keep up. Which is why I'd be happy to move Domi for a Petry-replacement, and move Petry for various futures if we can't get help up front for him, and only keep 2 of the 3 forwards. The flat cap might have some weird effects though, making guys accept shorter-term deals in the hope of cashing in as UFAs in 2-3 years when perhaps more money is available. I'd move Weber before Petry... Petry has shown he can be a #1 when Weber was out, Petry is a better skater. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Sept 21, 2020 9:17:54 GMT -5
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