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Post by Tankdriver on Jun 9, 2023 13:11:57 GMT -5
I just don't see him as a game changer. Is he a good player....yes. but when I am dropping 9M on a player, he has to be one of the best at his position.
To me he is max 7 to 7.5M player.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 9, 2023 13:58:59 GMT -5
Yeah, I see him around the $8MM level, but I'd want to be able to move him on in 4 years time or so (age 29) when he still has a few good years left and his value would still be high, but you'd want to add some younger assets to keep the ball rolling. As you say, Tank, he's not a game changer, so paying him like one is not a good idea. I don't want his contract to become a Gallagher type.
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Post by folatre on Jun 9, 2023 18:44:36 GMT -5
Boys, Bo Horvat with a career .67 points per game clip (and not particularly physical, nor real high end defensively) just got 8 years/$8.5 AAV and the deal starts at age 28. So I think it is safe to say Dubois will be the $8 something range. After all, he is bigger, meaner, four years younger, and somewhat more productive offensively (.696 points per game).
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Post by jkr on Jun 9, 2023 19:12:41 GMT -5
Wouldn't other GMs just say that Lamoriello has lost his mind & overpaid to justify the trade?
Didnt LL say something similar - that the contract was too long & for too much $.
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Post by folatre on Jun 9, 2023 20:24:52 GMT -5
For sure, Lou was speaking the truth, though reading between the lines he seemed to be suggesting the irrationality of the market is what it is and someone who needs a top six centre would have paid Horvat that money or at least something very close to it.
Another example in the top six centre category getting paid is Larkin. He is a little notch up offensively (.748 ppg in his career), but he got 8 years/$8.7 million per on a deal starting at age 27 in order for the Wings to prevent him from hitting the open market.
I guess the moral of the story is that top six centres command a premium when they get to the juncture in their career where they hold the leverage.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 9, 2023 23:06:43 GMT -5
For sure, Lou was speaking the truth, though reading between the lines he seemed to be suggesting the irrationality of the market is what it is and someone who needs a top six centre would have paid Horvat that money or at least something very close to it. Another example in the top six centre category getting paid is Larkin. He is a little notch up offensively (.748 ppg in his career), but he got 8 years/$8.7 million per on a deal starting at age 27 in order for the Wings to prevent him from hitting the open market. I guess the moral of the story is that top six centres command a premium when they get to the juncture in their career where they hold the leverage. So don't sign them until the price comes down. But that requires collusion. |
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Post by PTH on Jun 12, 2023 20:45:41 GMT -5
There was a pro-Dubois article in La Presse today, trying to normalize his trade requests, based on Columbus and even more Winnipeg were Saperlipopetteshows when he was there, and the fact Anderson had at one point asked for a trade is mentioned.
I don't know if the reporter actually did the work or if this was a fluff piece dumped on the reporters lap by Habs management or Dubois's agent...
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Post by Polarice on Jun 13, 2023 7:08:13 GMT -5
There was a pro-Dubois article in La Presse today, trying to normalize his trade requests, based on Columbus and even more Winnipeg were Saperlipopetteshows when he was there, and the fact Anderson had at one point asked for a trade is mentioned. I don't know if the reporter actually did the work or if this was a fluff piece dumped on the reporters lap by Habs management or Dubois's agent... I can understand why someone wants out of Winnipeg, I lived there for a year....it truly is a sh*t hole. I lived right downtown on Bannatyne. There were 6 jets living in my building one being Hellebuyck. He had one of those Audi R8's that sat in the parking garage and never moved....had to be an inch of dust on it. Never seen the guys, but never really looked for them. I only saw their puck bunny girlfriends waiting in the lobby of the building. |
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Post by folatre on Jun 13, 2023 16:41:40 GMT -5
I thought Dubois' exit from Columbus left something to be desired. However, to be honest I do not see a problem by anything that has gone down in Winnipeg. Dubois worked hard and really the only thing that seemed awkward was the way he never bothered to give any positive vibes in response to questions about signing long-term with the Jets. But I think that it is just how he rolls. He is not conventional like most hockey players in terms of throwing out diplomatic cliches.
Cheveldayoff must have a lot of irons in the fire right now. In recent memory, when has a club traded three players of the magnitude of Hellebuyck, Dubois, and Scheifele in the same summer? Hockey is debatable and maybe what the insiders (Dreger, Lebrun) are saying about Winnipeg being committed to having a competitive roster is accurate, but my impression is that their core minus those three is just not good enough to be in playoff contention and therefore it would make sense to stock up on nice 2023 picks and high end prospects from the last two or three drafts.
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Post by jkr on Jun 13, 2023 20:14:28 GMT -5
IMO if Winnipeg wants to be competitive they have to at least keep Helebuyck. If they trade a Vezina calibre guy then that's the sign that they are throwing in the towel.
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Post by jkr on Jun 13, 2023 20:16:48 GMT -5
There was a pro-Dubois article in La Presse today, trying to normalize his trade requests, based on Columbus and even more Winnipeg were Saperlipopetteshows when he was there, and the fact Anderson had at one point asked for a trade is mentioned. I don't know if the reporter actually did the work or if this was a fluff piece dumped on the reporters lap by Habs management or Dubois's agent... I can understand why someone wants out of Winnipeg, I lived there for a year....it truly is a sh*t hole. I lived right downtown on Bannatyne. There were 6 jets living in my building one being Hellebuyck. He had one of those Audi R8's that sat in the parking garage and never moved....had to be an inch of dust on it. Never seen the guys, but never really looked for them. I only saw their puck bunny girlfriends waiting in the lobby of the building. An R8 is a nice ride. I wouldn't expose it to the rigors of a Winnipeg winter either.😀 |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 13, 2023 22:49:43 GMT -5
Or a Winnipeg summer?
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 14, 2023 7:25:30 GMT -5
all those dead bugs stuck to your windshield and grille...
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jun 14, 2023 8:55:04 GMT -5
I just don't see him as a game changer. Is he a good player....yes. but when I am dropping 9M on a player, he has to be one of the best at his position. To me he is max 7 to 7.5M player. You always end up paying more than the guy is worth. It's mainly about how that cap hit and production fits within the overall picture. Is Mark Stone worth $9.5mn a year? If you look at his production, maybe not. He's basically been a PPG player in the regular season and the playoffs which is pretty darn good but not elite. He also happens to be a key piece of a perennial contender and now Cup champion. Jack Eichel has $10mn cap hit. He's paid as a superstar but his production, like Stone, has been more like an 80 point guy than a true superstar like McDavid, Kucherov, Pastrnak. Still he's a key piece of a Cup winner who led the playoffs in scoring with 26 points in 22 games. The key with Vegas is they've gotten their money's worth with just about everyone. There's just no dead weight on their payroll. Eichel ($10m), Stone ($9.5m), Karlsson ($5.9m), Marchessault ($5m), Smith ($5m), Pietrangelo ($8.8m), Martinez ($5.2m), Theodore ($5.2)... all those guys have produced. So back to Dubois, he's probably "worth" in the $9m area given his age and production. I don't know if he's an 80 point guy, but I'm less worried about PLD than I was about Drouin. It's really about the rest of the payroll and making sure you are getting bang for the buck. The Habs have struggled in this area with a lot of bad contracts. |
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Post by Polarice on Jun 14, 2023 9:39:38 GMT -5
I just don't see him as a game changer. Is he a good player....yes. but when I am dropping 9M on a player, he has to be one of the best at his position. To me he is max 7 to 7.5M player. You always end up paying more than the guy is worth. It's mainly about how that cap hit and production fits within the overall picture. Is Mark Stone worth $9.5mn a year? If you look at his production, maybe not. He's basically been a PPG player in the regular season and the playoffs which is pretty darn good but not elite. He also happens to be a key piece of a perennial contender and now Cup champion. Jack Eichel has $10mn cap hit. He's paid as a superstar but his production, like Stone, has been more like an 80 point guy than a true superstar like McDavid, Kucherov, Pastrnak. Still he's a key piece of a Cup winner who led the playoffs in scoring with 26 points in 22 games. The key with Vegas is they've gotten their money's worth with just about everyone. There's just no dead weight on their payroll. Eichel ($10m), Stone ($9.5m), Karlsson ($5.9m), Marchessault ($5m), Smith ($5m), Pietrangelo ($8.8m), Martinez ($5.2m), Theodore ($5.2)... all those guys have produced. So back to Dubois, he's probably "worth" in the $9m area given his age and production. I don't know if he's an 80 point guy, but I'm less worried about PLD than I was about Drouin. It's really about the rest of the payroll and making sure you are getting bang for the buck. The Habs have struggled in this area with a lot of bad contracts. Agreed on all accounts....playing in the right system with the proper linemates you can bet PLD is a point per game guy. I'm not sure I would pay 9m for him but he's right in that area. If he's willing to sign long term at 8 something, I would be all over it. |
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Post by madhabber on Jun 14, 2023 10:16:20 GMT -5
PLD playing wing with Suzuki and Caufield. Looks like a good first line to me. But he's not the only guy who can fit there. And we can't become a one-line team to get there either. I'm not trading Dach to get him.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 14, 2023 10:33:30 GMT -5
PLD playing wing with Suzuki and Caufield. Looks like a good first line to me. But he's not the only guy who can fit there. And we can't become a one-line team to get there either. I'm not trading Dach to get him. And I don't think paying him more than Suz is the right thing... if he wants to really be a Hab, he'll put team first to win a cup. Assuming Josh and picks prospects go the other way... Cc-suz-pld Slaf-dach-Beck |
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Post by Tankdriver on Jun 14, 2023 11:49:44 GMT -5
I wonder what Josh Andersons real trade value is? I wonder if him, Florida's first and our fifth would be enough to get #2?
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 14, 2023 12:20:08 GMT -5
I wonder what Josh Andersons real trade value is? I wonder if him, Florida's first and our fifth would be enough to get #2? I guess if Anaheim wants michov, they could do this put Josh with zegras and pick michov or Smith at 5. I assume the habs would grab Fantilli... |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 14, 2023 12:22:14 GMT -5
all those dead bugs stuck to your windshield and grille... Get those everywhere, but maybe more in Manitoba. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 14, 2023 12:23:46 GMT -5
all those dead bugs stuck to your windshield and grille... Get those everywhere, but maybe more in Manitoba. Don't they call it Winnibug in the summer? |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 14, 2023 12:32:56 GMT -5
I just don't see him as a game changer. Is he a good player....yes. but when I am dropping 9M on a player, he has to be one of the best at his position. To me he is max 7 to 7.5M player. You always end up paying more than the guy is worth. It's mainly about how that cap hit and production fits within the overall picture. Is Mark Stone worth $9.5mn a year? If you look at his production, maybe not. He's basically been a PPG player in the regular season and the playoffs which is pretty darn good but not elite. He also happens to be a key piece of a perennial contender and now Cup champion. Jack Eichel has $10mn cap hit. He's paid as a superstar but his production, like Stone, has been more like an 80 point guy than a true superstar like McDavid, Kucherov, Pastrnak. Still he's a key piece of a Cup winner who led the playoffs in scoring with 26 points in 22 games. The key with Vegas is they've gotten their money's worth with just about everyone. There's just no dead weight on their payroll. Eichel ($10m), Stone ($9.5m), Karlsson ($5.9m), Marchessault ($5m), Smith ($5m), Pietrangelo ($8.8m), Martinez ($5.2m), Theodore ($5.2)... all those guys have produced. So back to Dubois, he's probably "worth" in the $9m area given his age and production. I don't know if he's an 80 point guy, but I'm less worried about PLD than I was about Drouin. It's really about the rest of the payroll and making sure you are getting bang for the buck. The Habs have struggled in this area with a lot of bad contracts. These later years have convinced me that, more than in the past, that so much luck is involved in winning the Cup. Injuries to other teams, having guys like Aidin Hill morph into Dominik Hasek for 6 weeks, and having key injuries or slumps happen to other good teams play such huge roles. It's because there's so much parity of course, and because the CAP system gives a giant advantage to low and no tax jurisdictions, none of which are in Canada. I think I read a tweet where two of the finalists and a cup winner they last 2 years were $12 and $20 MM over the CAP. Or something ridiculous like that. Then there are idiots who claim that those are the rules for everyone and those teams just took advantage of it more than others. No. Not every team has key players (most expensive) get injured and miraculously recover right after the season ends. I know they don't get injured on purpose, but if they do, it gives that team an enormous opportunity. Either have an independent medical team decide if that player is healthy enough to play, or (better) just continue the CAP into the playoffs. But I understand the huge majority of teams voted against that. Hmmm...must be some money involved because why not? It seems logical to an extreme to ensure fairness. I'm becoming very jaded toward the NHL. And to other pro sports as well. Greed is so rampant it has taken away the joy of the games themselves. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jun 14, 2023 13:36:58 GMT -5
These later years have convinced me that, more than in the past, that so much luck is involved in winning the Cup. That's always been true, which is why the job of a management team is to build a team that can be a consistent contender every year or at least a legit 5-year window. A hot goalie here, a bad injury there, some bad puck luck and all of a sudden you're out (like the Bruins). It's boring but it's all about regular season success. Give me a team that is consistently near the top of the conference and I'll take my chances in the playoffs. In their 6 years of existence, Vegas has finished 1st or 2nd in their division 4x, made the conference finals 3x and the Cup finals 2x. If you told me the Habs would do that over a 6-year span I'd be thrilled.... even if it turned out they never won the Cup. It's hard to finish the job over 4 rounds after 82 games. The best team doesn't always win, which is why you need to be in a good position every year. Sooner or later you break through, like the Knights. The "make the playoffs and anything can happen" is a mantra for losing organizations. |
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Post by Cranky on Jun 14, 2023 15:21:40 GMT -5
About Dubois...
Much is made about Dubois and open to being traded to more teams.
First of all, Dubois won't sign with the Jets unless there is a trade made AND he wants to go there. So the Jets are not going to be able to get the "best trade" and then sign him if he doesn't want to go there.
At this point, it forces the Habs to make an offer, but it may not be as good as another team. It means nothing to Dubois and he simply rejects the other destinations.
Of course I rather wait another year and get him for nothing, but it also means he will be available when the cap goes up.
This is where 31OA and Anderson or Dvorak are no losses to get Dubois.
This is way too much drama with getting him, but he WILL make the team better so I can put up with that drama.
It's been a worthless season so far but the right pieces falling in place with Dubois and the draft can make the season worth it.
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Post by franko on Jun 14, 2023 15:42:48 GMT -5
Get those everywhere, but maybe more in Manitoba. Don't they call it Winnibug in the summer?  |
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 14, 2023 19:05:31 GMT -5
Don't they call it Winnibug in the summer? Lol |
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 14, 2023 19:09:48 GMT -5
About Dubois... Much is made about Dubois and open to being traded to more teams. First of all, Dubois won't sign with the Jets unless there is a trade made AND he wants to go there. So the Jets are not going to be able to get the "best trade" and then sign him if he doesn't want to go there. At this point, it forces the Habs to make an offer, but it may not be as good as another team. It means nothing to Dubois and he simply rejects the other destinations. Of course I rather wait another year and get him for nothing, but it also means he will be available when the cap goes up. This is where 31OA and Anderson or Dvorak are no losses to get Dubois. This is way too much drama with getting him, but he WILL make the team better so I can put up with that drama. It's been a worthless season so far but the right pieces falling in place with Dubois and the draft can make the season worth it. I worry about the drama DuBois will bring... on 2 teams he has created selfish drama... you can say Drouin did that in Tampa when he refused to be sent down but in Montreal he was well liked by his teammates and he brought no drama, but he was the cause of a lot of drama in the fanbase. |
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Post by folatre on Jun 14, 2023 19:54:29 GMT -5
Yes, Drouin behaved like the consummate pro in Montreal, always saying the right thing, no denying that. But the problem was he never played anywhere near the level he needed to play to justify getting 6 x 5.5 coming off his ELC.
I don't see why a signed, sealed and delivered Dubois would cause drama. Sure, if the is in the big market home town fishbowl at 8 x 8.5 then obviously there are a millions of eyeballs on him and how he plays in Montreal. But I do not see why a guy playing 20 minutes a night in the city where he wants to play would rock the boat and create drama.
Once a guy on the door of being a UFA signs a 7 or 8 year contract that takes him to age 32-33, I think this scenario would render the whole "I need to go elsewhere" vibe a moot point. If he doesn't like the contract that Hughes is offering, then clearly a trade will not get done.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 14, 2023 21:05:47 GMT -5
Yes, Drouin behaved like the consummate pro in Montreal, always saying the right thing, no denying that. But the problem was he never played anywhere near the level he needed to play to justify getting 6 x 5.5 coming off his ELC. I don't see why a signed, sealed and delivered Dubois would cause drama. Sure, if the is in the big market home town fishbowl at 8 x 8.5 then obviously there are a millions of eyeballs on him and how he plays in Montreal. But I do not see why a guy playing 20 minutes a night in the city where he wants to play would rock the boat and create drama. Once a guy on the door of being a UFA signs a 7 or 8 year contract that takes him to age 32-33, I think this scenario would render the whole "I need to go elsewhere" vibe a moot point. If he doesn't like the contract that Hughes is offering, then clearly a trade will not get done. I didn't go into whether he earned his contract money but that is where the fan base drama came from an I was pretty dramatic about it. When the media soured on Drouin he didn't say a thing, when some of the fan base went overboard, he went on mental leave, if that happens to Dubois, what will happen, will he demand a trade? |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jun 15, 2023 7:40:17 GMT -5
The local angle means that both PLD and, more importantly, management believes he can truly produce in Montreal with this team and this coach.
In the end, the Drouin trade came down to poor talent assessment on the part of Bergevin and his staff. Drouin turned out to not be a very good hockey player. Plenty of natural skill and ability but not enough hockey sense, intelligence and drive. You can say the pressure of playing in Montreal didn’t help but I’m not sure he would have been much better elsewhere. I think Tampa was perfectly fine moving him.
I really don’t know how good PLD is but for that money and term there needs to be a high degree of conviction that he will live up to it. Otherwise don’t do it.
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