Wondering what we might get for our treasure trove? MA Godin canvassed 5 scouts for The Athletic. Some interesting observations. Better have a stick of wood to bite down on when Drouin gets reviewed.
Scouts confidential: What value might Canadiens players with term left have on the trade market?It is easy to assume that Canadiens veterans with expiring contracts like Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak and Mathieu Perreault will be gone by the March 21 NHL trade deadline, but what about those with term left on their deals?
Five pro scouts who have watched the Canadiens extensively this season agreed to anonymously share their perception of some of those players with The Athletic and what their value on the market might represent.
But first, a caveat or two. First off, pro scouts are not general managers. And secondly, it is impossible to disassociate a player’s value in terms of his contributions on the ice with their contract. In each case of the players discussed here, the return the Canadiens can expect in a trade is intimately tied to the term and money remaining on the contract, as well as how much money the Canadiens would be willing to retain. As one of the scouts we spoke with summed up: “Brendan Gallagher at $4 million and Brendan Gallagher at $6.5 million is not at all the same thing.”
Would Jeff Gorton and the next general manager be willing to embark on a full rebuild or would they prefer to make targeted improvements to quickly turn this around? Will they ship out the veterans that have the most value on the trade market or the ones with the most cumbersome contracts, even if that means not getting much in return?
One thing’s for sure, as Scout No. 3 told us, we can expect the Canadiens to be aggressive.
“As anywhere else, when there’s a change in the front office, if they rebuild, a lot of players are going to be traded because they are not their players and they will want to put their own stamp on the team,” he said.
“This is a team that will be heavily scouted until March 21.”
If that’s the route the Canadiens want to take, Scout No. 1 says they would be best served to start right away.
“What’s great about the Canadiens’ position right now is that there are teams that are going to remember their playoff run and they’re going to see these players in that light,” he said. “That’s why the timing — if they were to do it — is good for them. Because if they went through it at the end of next year, people would kind of forget. The NHL is funny, it really is about short-term memory sometimes. If you’re dealing with a team that remembers the playoff run, now is the time to be moving players.”
It’s not every player with term left on their contracts that we dealt with here. For various reasons, ranging from usefulness of the skill set to depth at his position to injuries, Josh Anderson, Christian Dvorak, Paul Byron et Joel Edmundson were not included.
So with that, let’s dive in.
Carey PriceAge: 34
Cap hit: $10.5 million
Years left after this one: 4
“For sure there’s a market for him, but it would be quite the gamble,” said Scout No. 2. “But yes, there’s a market, that’s an automatic. There are teams who think they are a goalie away from being able to really do something … It might happen, but Price will need to come back and play like he did in the playoffs. That’s a big ‘if’ because if you look at his last three or four seasons, that hasn’t been the case.”
Carey Price is the single biggest reason why the Canadiens should hope the NHL goes to the Olympics. If Price is able to return in time, he could use Beijing to prove to the hockey world what he can offer another team. Because the interest in him is still there.
“When you look around the league, in terms of true No. 1 goalies, there are fewer than 15 of them,” said Scout No. 3. “Everyone uses a committee and hopes that one of them will have a great season … Bringing in a guy like that, with a reputation for never crumbling under the pressure, has a positive impact on a team. But again, it would have to work with the salary cap.”
The Canadiens need to find a team with Stanley Cup aspirations willing to make the investment and with the necessary salary-cap space required, which is a difficult combination to find among the top teams. That reality limits the market considerably.
“With what he’s shown in the playoffs, he should have two or three more years of solid hockey left in him, assuming he can recover from his injury and his off-ice issues are settled,” said Scout No. 3. “I think Colorado would be a good fit for him. Darcy Kuemper has the reputation who gets hurt a lot, and it’s the same thing this year.”
Scout No. 5 figures there might be two or three teams who could be interested.
“He has a lot of value for certain teams, but the problem is absorbing that contract under the cap for four years,” he said. “What is he worth? As far as I’m concerned, a first-round pick and a prospect, for sure. That’s a minimum.”
We believe the Canadiens would prefer to take back a bad contract or two as opposed to eating significant money for several years. The value of the draft picks coming back would depend on the bad contract or contracts that would come with those picks.
His full no-movement clause gives Price all the leverage, except for one thing: just because he accepts being moved, or even asks for it, doesn’t mean it will happen. There are so few teams who can afford to add Price that he needs to accept the possibility he will be stuck in Montreal for the duration of his deal.
Jake AllenAge: 31
Cap hit: $2.875 million
Years left after this one: 1
Allen’s status is tied to Price’s, but it seems to us that the Canadiens would want to know where Price stands in terms of his health and his wishes for the future before deciding on what to do with Allen.
“Maybe Jake Allen can get you a first-round pick,” Scout No. 2 suggested with some hesitation. “A team that has its No. 1 goalie go down with a knee injury in February but thinks it still has a chance might be prepared to give up a first-round pick for him. But the situation would really need to be perfect.”
If a team were to face such a scenario, going after someone like Marc-André Fleury would probably be a better option than Allen. But if Price were to return in the second half of the season and nothing happens in terms of moving him before the deadline, the Canadiens should look into monetizing Allen’s trade value into draft picks knowing they will still have Price, Samuel Montembeault and Cayden Primeau next season, or they could sign a goalie in the offseason pretty easily even if Price were also traded.
Jeff PetryAge: 34
Cap hit: $6.25 million
Years left after this one: 3
If the fine line between a bad season and the start of a decline is an issue for Gallagher, then it is just as much of an issue for Petry. Scout No. 3 doesn’t think Petry has started a decline since he is still and excellent skater, but he sees some of the same things in his game that he saw from him in Edmonton.
“It’s as if he’s brought back some of the bad habits of being nonchalant with the puck and finding himself out of position,” he said, adding it is Petry’s decision-making that is in question this season more than his actual skills.
Both Scout No. 2 and 3 agreed that Petry is the type of player that represents a risk for a pro scout to recommend to his general manager.
“He’s a scout killer,” Scout No. 3 said.
“If you can find a team that can shelter him as a No. 3 or No. 4, then no problem,” Scout No. 2 said. “But how many teams can afford to pay $6.5 million to their No. 4 defenceman? Petry might have a big season next year, but in two or three years, you’re going to eat some money.”
Scout No. 5, for his part, feels Petry is “salvageable”.
“In spite of his struggles, there’s still a market for Jeff among teams looking for a good third defenceman who can play on the second power-play unit,” he said. “Does that mean he could fetch a couple of draft picks? Like a second- and third-round pick, and maybe a ‘B’ prospect?
“Again, he has a no-trade list, so it’s going to depend on him. He’s an American who has played in Canada his whole career, so I think he might be interested in playing in the U.S.”
Both in terms of needs and salary structure, Petry would seem to be a good fit for a team like the Nashville Predators.
David SavardAge: 31
Cap hit: $3.5 million
Years left after this one: 3
Only a few months have passed since the Tampa Bay Lightning gave up a first-round pick the Columbus Blue Jackets to acquire Savard to play on their third defence pairing. Six months after raising the Stanley Cup, and even if Savard earns a relatively modest salary, it doesn’t seem like demand for his services would be all that high.
“The term of his contract is what’s going to impact his value,” said Scout No. 1. “More than performance, more than anything, it’s the term of his contract, the fact that there is three years left after this year at $3.5 million for what many people are feeling is a declining asset.”
Scout No. 5 feels that since he left Columbus, Savard has found himself in roles where he can’t succeed. The fact the Lightning did not use him much on the penalty kill, which was always part of Savard’s identity as a player, might have contributed to the dip in market value. But if Tampa didn’t use him enough, it’s the opposite in Montreal, where he’s been pushed into too big of a role for what he is able to give at this stage of his career.
“There’s no doubt he has some value, but as a fifth or sixth defenceman,” said Scout No. 5, who thinks Savard would fit in on a rebuilding Canadiens team so long as he plays a role suitable to him.
“For guys like Savard, (Tyler) Toffoli or (Mike) Hoffman, (the Canadiens) would prefer taking someone back on an expiring contract who is making the same money or a bit higher in order to get a better draft pick, but without retaining salary.”
Ben ChiarotAge: 30
Cap hit: $3.5 million
Years left after this one: 0 (UFA)
Chiarot will surely be traded if he stays healthy and it is highly likely the Canadiens will be able to get a first-round pick in return. There will be demand for his services; teams like Florida and Washington should be among a large group of teams interested.
This exercise was primarily meant to address players with term left on their contracts, but Scout No. 1 made an interesting point when it comes to rental players that are hot on the market.
“I think if you’re a buyer, you want to do it early,” he said. “And if you’re a seller, you want to wait as long as possible, generally speaking.”
We’ve already written it, but considering the awful injury luck that is following the Canadiens this season, it would not be a bad idea to take of this sooner rather than later.
Brendan GallagherAge: 29
Cap hit: $6.5 million
Years left after this one: 5
Gallagher was once a unanimously valued asset, but the passing of time has created divergent opinions of him today. Still, there are those who believe that even if his production has been down over the past two playoffs, Gallagher still plays a style that is useful in the postseason and that his production over the last year is not necessarily a sign of decline.
“When he signed his contract, I would be prepared to say there were 25 teams that would have signed him to the same contract,” said Scout No. 2. “I think he’s banged up, but I don’t think he’s in a rapid decline. It is partly true that he hasn’t managed to find chemistry with other players. The system he plays is not ideal for him. But if you put him with players who can get pucks to the front of the net, he’ll do what he does and he’ll score 30 goals.”
Scout No. 1, however, does see signs of a decline in Gallagher, but admits it is not necessarily a widely held opinion around the league. For several teams who still hold him in high regard, the issue in acquiring him would be what to do with the final few years on his contract.
“If I’m looking at it myself, I think the window to acquire him is probably closed already for me,” Scout No. 1 said. “But I still think there’s teams around the league that would definitely jump at it.”
According to him, the Canadiens could find a team that would take Gallagher without even having to retain salary.
“If Montreal were to retain 50 percent, I think they’d be able to look at probably a first-round pick and maybe even a prospect for Gallagher,” he added.
“If you take half the salary, you’re actually eliminating any handcuff that the team that acquires him is going to have, so the value goes up substantially.”
Not everyone agrees.
“His contract is going to make him tough to move,” said Scout No. 3.
It is obvious in Gallagher’s case that the longer the Canadiens wait, the more his value risks dropping. But this is also a question of organizational philosophy: on a team that lost a lot of leadership, will they want to jettison one of the last real sources of inspiration on the roster?
Tyler ToffoliAge: 29
Cap hit: $4.25 million
Years left after this one: 2
Toffoli had hand surgery last week but should be back in the lineup at some point in mid-February, so at least a month before the trade deadline.
“He is their most interesting guy,” said Scout No. 5. “He’s really a specialist who could help teams on a third line and the power play. Depending on the market, his value comes close to a first-round pick and a prospect. He won the Stanley Cup with Los Angeles, has playoff experience, played well last year and has a good track record. He’s the one, in my opinion, with the most trade value on the Canadiens after Carey Price.”
Even if there are still two years on Toffoli’s contract, he has the potential to be a bargain and many teams could accommodate a contract like his.
“His game is interesting to me,” said Scout No. 4. “He’s a hole-finder, like, he manages to find those holes in the offensive zone and get his chances. We saw it in the playoffs, and we saw it with Vancouver before that, so it’s there. But he also hasn’t gotten off to a very good start this year, and there are years left there. So, it’s tough.”
If the Canadiens were prepared to take back a contract of a player who is worse than Toffoli but makes the same kind of money, Scout No. 5 believes they could get a first-round pick and a prospect or young player in return.
If that’s the case, the Canadiens should not hesitate one second.
Mike HoffmanAge: 32
Cap hit: $4.5 million
Years left after this one: 2
Like Toffoli, Hoffman is a winger with a good finishing touch, who makes roughly the same money and is in the same age bracket.
But Hoffman has nowhere near the same level of clout among our pro scouts.
“Full disclosure, I’m not a fan of this player at all … That contract, that term, for that player, it’s going to be tough,” Scout No. 1 said. “You’re really going to need to have a team that’s going to the playoffs with a power play that’s running at 15 percent and they feel like he can be this guy, and they need that specific type of player. Then the market will open up a little bit. But otherwise, I can’t see … I mean, it might sound silly, but there are teams that overvalue goals. So if you have one of those teams that overvalue goals, then maybe. But at 32 years old with two years after this year at 4.5 (million), for a guy that’s had health issues, I think the market will be tight for him.”
Scout No. 2 feels Hoffman is the one with the least value among the players the Canadiens might consider trading.
“His contract isn’t bad, but I wouldn’t touch it,” he added. “How do you go from a leadership group that includes Danault, Perry, Staal and Weber to Wideman and Hoffman? And they wonder why they’re not winning?”
Scout No. 5, however, raises a point that even if the management group is changing in Montreal, there is a still a risk in trading Hoffman right now.
“You have to be careful when you bring in a free agent and then trade him in the first year he arrives,” he said. “It doesn’t send a good message to future free agents.”
Jonathan DrouinAge: 26
Cap hit: $5.5 million
Years left after this one: 1
Let us begin with the most visceral reaction we got on Drouin, the one from Scout No. 5 who thinks that in a best-case scenario, the Canadiens could get a fourth-round pick in return for Drouin if they retain half his salary.
“It’s really a hot potato,” he said. “You’re trying to trade him for almost nothing. As far as I’m concerned, his value is at its lowest. With his salary, I don’t think another team would be ready to give up anything.”
In the eyes of Scout No. 1, Drouin could generate more interest than that. Listening to the two of them, it’s almost as if they are talking about two different players.
“If there’s teams that have a first pick and they have an early second round pick, I think there’s teams that would move an early second-round pick, and maybe even a lower-end prospect, or maybe even a higher-end prospect for Drouin if they feel like it’s something that can help them, just because there’s only one year left after this,” he said. “But again, it always depends on the market and it always depends on that specific team, where they’re at with their cap going forward.”
That’s a pretty stunning read of the player considering Drouin’s contract, his style of play that make him sometimes unpredictable for his teammates, and that his production has never quite matched his potential.
“That’s a lot of money, even if it’s only one more year,” said Scout No. 4 who, without questioning Drouin’s courage in admitting he needed help to address his mental health issues, admits teams will wonder about it, much like they would wonder about the state of Price’s knee of Gallagher’s hands.
“It’s there,” he said.
Scout No. 2 thinks there could be a market for Drouin, but that it would be more so around the draft when a team like Buffalo or Seattle could step up and figure out how they could absorb the final year of his contract.
“A team that is pretty stable defensively but is missing some skill up front would take him for a season, knowing that the price to pay at the draft is often less than at the trade deadline,” he said. “Not a whole lot would be going the other way. I could see it from a team who needs some offence and a team who would like to bring some dead wood to life, kind of like what the Panthers did with Anthony Duclair …”
Joel ArmiaAge: 28
Cap hit: $3.4 million
Years left after this one: 3
As opposed to the other forwards mentioned here, Armia’s contract puts him in the middle class of NHL players. In principle, that should make him easier for a team to acquire than it would for Petry or Gallagher. But look out: “Guys like that, if they don’t produce, they kill your cap,” said Scout No. 2.
We mentioned in the introduction how the short-term memory of NHL teams could help the Canadiens. If there are indeed teams who still have the Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup Final fresh in their minds, Armia must still seem like an attractive addition.
“Someone will have watched him in the playoffs and say to themselves that they’d like to have a bit more size on their third or fourth line and they could take a chance on him because they have good veterans to support him,” said Scout No. 2. “We can convince ourselves of anything. But for me, I wouldn’t touch that.
“If my boss called to tell me we might have a deal for Joel Armia, I would tell him to hang up the phone and pretend it’s not working anymore.”
Despite how strongly Scout No. 2 feels about it, there are still teams that would be intrigued.
“If he was making $900,000 less and making 2.5 (million), his value would be really good, probably even second-round pick value,” said Scout No. 1. “But where (his money) is now, I think it pushes it down a little bit. But I think there’s value, there’s teams that are going to want to trade for Joel Armia, just because of his ability to move up and down the lineup, and teams still feel like there’s something missing there.”
In different circumstances, and considering his contract, Armia is the type of player that could be traded to a team that identifies his assets as a need, sending a similarly-priced player back with a different profile. If Gorton is looking to shed salary commitments and is only looking to bring back draft picks, then getting anything better than a fourth-round pick would be unlikely, said Scout No. 3.
Artturi LehkonenAge: 26
Cap hit: $2.3 million
Years left after this: 0 (RFA)
No one is a prophet in his own country, the proverb says. It applies well to Lehkonen, because in Montreal people focus largely on the scoring chances he doesn’t convert but miss all the little details in his game that make him useful.
According to Scout No. 5, Lehkonen is a player that would interest several teams.
“He’s not a natural scorer — he needs six or seven chances to score a goal — but what he brings to a team is not scoring, it’s his leadership on the ice and the way he plays. To me, he has very good value to a team who aspires to win. He’s the ideal guy. Even if he isn’t a big guy, he plays the right way, he goes to the net, he hits, he’s involved in every facet of the game … he skates, he creates turnovers, he pressures the puck. He does everything you’d want.”
Scout No. 3 works for an organization who’s already shown interest in Lehkonen in the past and he still sees him as a player who could help a team win a Stanley Cup.
“You could send back a prospect that you project as a good third-liner and just jumpstart the process by getting Lehkonen now,” he said.
“I think he’s a guy who could bring a second-round pick back, and maybe even a prospect on top of that,” added Scout No. 5.
Lehkonen is surely the type of player the Canadiens would rather keep, but they’re not in a position to be too generous in contract talks with their middle-class players.
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