Playoffs Discussion 2023-24

[CentreHice]

Apologies for the premature thread earlier. I forgot that the sked runs til Thursday.

We can talk about the East at least...

Round 1

RANGERS-CAPITALS
PANTHERS-LIGHTNING
BRUINS-LEAFS
HURRICANES-ISLANDERS


Looking forward so some great hockey this playoff season.

[seventeen]

Rangers / Caps

The clock strikes midnight on a plucky, hard working but talentless group of Caps. Goaltending can only take you so far. Rangers in 4.

Panthers / Tampa

I despise both teams, but I think the “bounces always go our way” Panthers are going to have their luck run out. They won’t get as many power plays and that’s where they generated much offense. I’m hoping for an Eyssimont-Cousins fight where they both get injured. Tampa in 6.

Leafs /Boston.

The Leafs goaltending is scary and I don’t mean in a good way. The defense is mediocre. While the Bruins have their own issues, these are fewer than Toronto’s. Besides, Keefe sucks as a coach. Bruins in 7.

Islanders / Carolina

No doubt the dullest of the series’. It’s a Frankly Scarlett matchup. It’s lulling me to sleep just thinking about it. Let’s go upset in this one. Isles in 6.

[Willie Dog]

Rags in 4
Cats in 6
Canes in 5
Bruins in 5

[jkr]

Rangers in 5 - the Caps just scraped in the last wild card and are just happy to be in the playoffs. Too much skill and strong goaltending in NY. And how did Washington get in the playoffs with a -37 goal differential?

Panthers in 7 - maybe the best of the opening series. I think the the combo of skill, meanness and goaltending gets FLA by.

Carolina in 5 - I just can't see the Isle able to generate much against a disciplined side like Carolina.

Boston in 6 - Toronto is going in to the playoffs on a 4 game losing skid where they've allowed 22 goals. Their goaltending is average at best & Nylander is in an 11 game goal drought.

I'm tired, already, of Toronto media people saying this is a good matchup for the Leafs. The line is no Bergeron or Krejci etc. It's like they were told to say something that will ease the anxiety of the fans. The Bruins without those two players still went 4-0 against Toronto this season. The goaltending is stronger and the coaching is better.

I guess the dream scenario for Habs fans would have been if the final positions in the standings of TB and Toronto were reversed. Then maybe both the Leafs & Bruins go out in the 1st round.😀

[CentreHice]

Boston in 5 - I expect the current Leafs' goalie wobbles to continue.
Florida in 7
Rangers in 4
Canes in 5

[folatre]

I actually think Tampa could be hurt more by the fact that playoff hockey does offer many power play opportunities unless a blowout gets angry and nasty. The Lightning was not in the top half of the league at even strength. And they have some real depth issues on the blue line. I think Vasilevsky steps up and steals a couple, but I have to take the Panthers in 7.

Boston is kind of meh down the middle but extremely strong everywhere else. Is that a sufficient recipe for sending the Leafs out in round one? Tough call. Toronto had quite a bit of luck last year in the first round, winning a lot of OT road games where they were the second best team. I think Boston finds the clutch gene in their own barn and that makes the difference. Boston in 7.

Washington makes the shake my wonder and wonder how did a team this mediocre get into the playoffs. Well, it was an outlier where the cut line was way lower then usual. Lindgren has shown an ability to steal games, but can he do that in the playoffs? I think not. Rangers in 5.

How many times have we already seen Islanders v. Hurricanes in the last 3-5 post season? It seems more than I want to recall. Can the Islanders move the puck quickly and intelligently enough out of their end to thwart the relentless Carolina forecheck and opportunism? Probably not, Hurricanes in 5.

[seventeen]

Lots of good points made above. In summary, pretty well everyone is going with 'the best team in the regular season is going to win the series'. That just doesn't happen all the time, which is why I'm guessing that there have to be some series that will be considered upsets. I picked the Isles over the Canes because the Isles play a really boring type of game that might work well. Also, Carolina's goaltending is a bit iffy and they seem to have trouble scoring in the playoffs, though Guentzel may solve that. They just seem to be a really good regular season team that somehow finds a way to lose in the playoffs. Besides, I still think Dundon is cheap, cheap, cheap.

The other series in which my guess is different from everyone else's is the Tampa/Florida series. My only explanation is that I think Lady Luck is going to play a role. Last year, I thought Boston might lose (didn't know when) because I had seen them take advantage of a LOT of really lucky bounces the entire year. What if they didn't get those breaks? They didn't and they lost. That's the same reasoning I'm using with Florida. While I have a lot of respect for Sam Reinhart, I just don't think he's a 57 goal scorer. It's so far outside his history it's laughable. He's not that guy and the playoffs often reflect a different season and it's like a reset. It's Reinhart's final year of his contract and how often have we see a guy have a career year in the last year of his contract?  Funny that. Reinhart has been a huge part of the Panthers this year. If he reverts to normal Reinhart that's going to hurt Florida big time. I could be completely wrong, but that's what I'm throwing my net worth of a coffee and a donut at the Panthers losing this series.

Brilliant analysis or stupid guessing? We shall see.

[jkr]

I'm surprised that the playoffs are starting so soon. I was expecting a 3 or 4 game game after the end of the season to allow teams to get ready for the grind. The Leafs played back to back this week on the road and have two days off before they start. And there were games being played last night, just 2 days before the playoffs start.

What's the rush?

[CentreHice]

WEST Round 1

STARS VS. GOLDEN KNIGHTS
CANUCKS VS. PREDATORS
OILERS VS. KINGS
JETS VS. AVALANCHE

Vegas lost at home to the Ducks (??) to fall to WC2 and will take on Dallas. Would they rather have faced the Stars than Edmonton?

Kings beat the Blackhawks and move to #3 seed, meeting the Oilers for the third straight year.

Vancouver and Nashville haven't squared off since December...and the Preds appear to be a "different" team.

Jets pounded the Avs recently in Colorado. Will Hellebuyck have a consistent playoff to match his regular season?


Dallas in 7
Edmonton in 5
Canucks in 6
Avs in 6

[Tankdriver]

Apr 19, 2024 7:27:59 GMT -5 jkr said:

I'm surprised that the playoffs are starting so soon. I was expecting a 3 or 4 game game after the end of the season to allow teams to get ready for the grind. The Leafs played back to back this week on the road and have two days off before they start. And there were games being played last night, just 2 days before the playoffs start.

What's the rush?

I think it is because the last possible day to hand out the cup is June 24th and draft is the 27th? With free agency on July 1st it doesn't give much time.

[franko]

from the who am I and what do I know files?

Panthers in 6 over Lightning
Leafs/Bruins in 6 over Bruins/Leafs (this is my toss-up series, who knows, who cares) but TML I guess
Canes in 5 over Islanders
Rags in 5 over Capitals

Canucks sweep in 4 over Preds
Avs in 6 over Jets (the losing tradition continues)
Oilers in 6 over Kings
Stars in 5 over Vegas

[Tankdriver]

My picks:

Lightning in 6
Bruins in 6
Hurricanes in 6
Rangers in 5

Canucks in 6
Jets in 7
Oilers in 5
Stars in 6

[seventeen]

Ah the West:

Oilers - Kings. Kings are the kind of team, like the Isles, that try to stifle. Seriously, I think this could go either way depending on goaltending. Let's say both goalies stink and then I'll go with the Oilers in 7.

Jets/Avalanche. Jets looked pretty solid vs the Canucks last night, with both teams missing key players. ONce again I'll throw my lira at the better goaltending, which means Winnipeg...in 6

Canucks / Nashville. This is going to be a hard fought series, but I think Vancouver added enough bottom 6 grittiness and talent (Dakota Joshua is back and his absence caused much of that losing streak later in the season) to look more like a playoff team. . Nucks in 7.

This is my favourite series, not because it involves two top teams, but it will start a lot of bitching from a team that is a Bettman favourite. "Why should a genuine Cup contender be eliminated in the first round!!!? This system is pathetic!!"

Of course most of us have been complaining about the playoff format for years, to fall on deaf ears. But if one of Gary's pets complains, we should see immediate changes.

But back to hockey. I don't think much of Vegas' goaltending, which has continued to confound me, but going up against Oettinger should have the clock striking midnight on their netminders. Dallas is a solid team. Stars in...hell, 5. This is also a choice from the heart because I want the Cheating Knights to get snuffed and still have that CAP headache heading into next season to sort out.

[folatre]

I hope the Canucks win, but I am concerned about how hard it was for them to pot goals in the second half of the season, as well as the lack of rhythm for Demko entering the playoffs. If Nashville can steal one in Vancouver, then it is really game on. I see it being maximum tension without heartbreak -- Vancouver wins in 7.

Who wants to see the Kings and Oilers again? Probably the Oilers and their fans. But for neutrals, it seems kind of boring and the outcome likely predictable. Edmonton dismantles Los Angeles in 5.

Georgiev is scary and frankly I do not see the Jets giving MacKinnon, Mittelstadt, and Makar a lot of open ice. My son and I like Winnipeg -- he currently plays for the "Jets" and their unis are identical to the NHL's Jets, so I have to channel some positivity with a Winnipeg in 7 prediction.

Dallas v Vegas is crazy. The situation in net is unsettled for Vegas and they are plugging in guys like Hertl and Stone with no time to crank it up. But there is no denying that their core is full of character and Cup pedigree. Dallas has been better than Vegas this season, yet something about the Stars' top six just gives me the 'not clutch' vibe. Golden Knights in 6.

[jkr]

Vancouver in 6. I confess that I don't know a lot about Nashville. They have strong performers at the important positions - Saros, Josi, Forsberg - but I think that with Pettersson, Miller, Boeser & Hughes that the Canucks have a little more.

Jets in 7. Winnipeg controlled this matchup during the season but Colorado's talent will make this an entertaining series. The Jets deadline pickups of Monahan & Toffoli have really worked out and they have a huge edge in goal. Hellebuyck is the likely Vezina winner and has already picked up the Jennings trophy. I find it odd that the Toronto media hardly mentions the Leafs late season losing streak along with the poor play of their goalies but the Denver media is talking up Georgiev's slump and suggestiong Bednar won't wait long to go to his backup.

Vegas in 7. This one was hard to decide. Dallas was strong all season but as others have mentioned here, Vegas has been here before & knows what to do.

Edmonton in 4. I've been thinking its Edmonton's year for a few years now but they do seem different. More disciplined defensively and Skinner seems more trustworthy. I cant see the Kings & whoever is their goalie holding off McDavis, Draisaitl, Hyman, Bouchard etc.

[folatre]

The Leafs were pushing hard to start to third, granted 4-1 down. And then Robertson gets blown up by a clean hit and for the entire shift that ensued, McCabe was just losing his mind (multiple cross-chackings, interference) when there were still about 14 minutes left in the game. And predictably the refs whistled him for a penalty.

Is that too early to burn the boats and send a message for game two? I would say yes. If it was still 4-1 with seven or eight minutes, then sure go crazy. I think McCabe is a solid physical #5 d-man (obviously Toronto overpaid to acquire him slots him in more high leverage situations than he can capably handle), but he has a tendency to be a lower IQ type NHLer.

[CentreHice]

Jets scored their 7th on Georgiev with their 22nd shot.

Needless to say, that save pct. isn't gonna get the job done.

[jkr]

Apr 22, 2024 7:44:24 GMT -5 CentreHice said:

Jets scored their 7th on Georgiev with their 22nd shot.

Needless to say, that save pct. isn't gonna get the job done.

Yet the focus of TSN was - are the Jets in trouble if Hellebuyck faces a lot of shots?

Winnipeg can clean things up defensively - that's why they won the Jennings Trophy. But the Avs are in a bad spot. They have to hope Georgiev gets better. And hoping for a goalie to get out of a slump is no place to be for a playoff team.

[Boston_Habs]

Apr 22, 2024 7:44:24 GMT -5 CentreHice said:

Jets scored their 7th on Georgiev with their 22nd shot.

Needless to say, that save pct. isn't gonna get the job done.

Something is wrong in Winnipeg. They had the worst attendance in the league after Arizona, an average actual attendance of 13,306 or 87.4% of capacity. Their season ticket base has dropped by almost 30% in the last 3 years to under 10,000 which is pretty bad. Not sure you can put that on Covid effects (i.e. people dropping season tickets).

Not the support you need or expect in a market like Winnipeg or a league that relies the most on the gate compared to NFL, NBA, MLB.

Anyone out there that can comment? Could Winnipeg lose its franchise AGAIN? Even Calgary posted its lowest average home attendance in the salary cap era.

Gotta give credit to Habs fans. In the middle of its weakest period of competitiveness in about 25 years (remember those putrid seasons from 1998-99 to 2000-01?) they still fill the building every night.

[Willie Dog]

Apr 22, 2024 10:33:42 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

Apr 22, 2024 7:44:24 GMT -5 CentreHice said:

Jets scored their 7th on Georgiev with their 22nd shot.

Needless to say, that save pct. isn't gonna get the job done.

Something is wrong in Winnipeg. They had the worst attendance in the league after Arizona, an average actual attendance of 13,306 or 87.4% of capacity. Their season ticket base has dropped by almost 30% in the last 3 years to under 10,000 which is pretty bad. Not sure you can put that on Covid effects (i.e. people dropping season tickets).

Not the support you need or expect in a market like Winnipeg. Anyone out there that can comment? Could Winnipeg lose its franchise AGAIN?

It depends on how committed the owner is to keeping them there... and there is no way the Jets will be moved to anywhere in Canada, it'll be a US location... Arizona Jets

[Boston_Habs]

I'm sure the owner will be patient, but I'd expect more from a Canadian market like Winnipeg with not much competition from other sports/entertainment options. At least fill the building, even if the seats are discounted. The dwindling season ticket base despite having a pretty good team is alarming. Does Winnipeg just not care that much about pro hockey? Frankly, this is why I think a team in Quebec City would NEVER work. That place is just so insular, so provincial, they have no clue or interest about the world outside, and I don't think they really care about sports all that much. Part of the appeal of US markets is they love sports. Even Columbus averages over 17,000 fans a game or 94% of capacity and they suck worse than Montreal with no playoffs for the last 3 years.

[seventeen]

Apr 22, 2024 10:49:09 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

Frankly, this is why I think a team in Quebec City would NEVER work. That place is just so insular, so provincial, they have no clue or interest about the world outside, and I don't think they really care about sports all that much. Part of the appeal of US markets is they love sports. Even Columbus averages over 17,000 fans a game or 94% of capacity and they suck worse than Montreal with no playoffs for the last 3 years.

Ouch. Cue the rebuttals.

Part of the issue is undoubtedly tied into the exchange rate where Canadian teams have to face an almost 40% surcharge on player salaries compared to revenues. Another problem is simply population. Winnipeg's is $750,000. Columbus' is $900,000. Not a huge difference, but there's not much population within 300 miles of Winnipeg while Columbus has much of the state of Ohio to call on. Markets will almost always be bigger in the US, but there is also more competition for sports dollars, as you point out, and hockey has not taken hold in the southern US unless the competitive forces are weaker. Florida and Tampa struggle, I understand (I don't have their average attendance, but the empty seats speak). Atlanta failed. Phoenix failed. Dallas isn't a problem, but the population is high. Denver has had a hockey culture for a long time and they don't have a problem with winter.

In a place like Winnipeg, the corporate support is important and I have no idea how that has been in Winnipeg.

I can't comment on Quebec City other than the population is around 560,000. How much can the surrounding area add? It might be the smallest market in the league. These numbers I'm using are off Goggle and I suspect they aren't the same as the US Census Bureau figures. Google has Houston at 7,000,000 and I thought that was high. The Census bureau has Houston at 2.7M, just under Google's figure . I'd heard ten years ago that Houston has 4M people, so it can vary depending on how much surrounding area you add in.

Any other factors? Are Americans that much more into sports than Canadians? Do they spend more frivolously? Etc.

[Willie Dog]

Apr 22, 2024 14:02:14 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Apr 22, 2024 10:49:09 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

Frankly, this is why I think a team in Quebec City would NEVER work. That place is just so insular, so provincial, they have no clue or interest about the world outside, and I don't think they really care about sports all that much. Part of the appeal of US markets is they love sports. Even Columbus averages over 17,000 fans a game or 94% of capacity and they suck worse than Montreal with no playoffs for the last 3 years.

Ouch. Cue the rebuttals.

Part of the issue is undoubtedly tied into the exchange rate where Canadian teams have to face an almost 40% surcharge on player salaries compared to revenues. Another problem is simply population. Winnipeg's is $750,000. Columbus' is $900,000. Not a huge difference, but there's not much population within 300 miles of Winnipeg while Columbus has much of the state of Ohio to call on. Markets will almost always be bigger in the US, but there is also more competition for sports dollars, as you point out, and hockey has not taken hold in the southern US unless the competitive forces are weaker. Florida and Tampa struggle, I understand (I don't have their average attendance, but the empty seats speak). Atlanta failed. Phoenix failed. Dallas isn't a problem, but the population is high. Denver has had a hockey culture for a long time and they don't have a problem with winter.

In a place like Winnipeg, the corporate support is important and I have no idea how that has been in Winnipeg.

I can't comment on Quebec City other than the population is around 560,000. How much can the surrounding area add? It might be the smallest market in the league. These numbers I'm using are off Goggle and I suspect they aren't the same as the US Census Bureau figures. Google has Houston at 7,000,000 and I thought that was high. The Census bureau has Houston at 2.7M, just under Google's figure . I'd heard ten years ago that Houston has 4M people, so it can vary depending on how much surrounding area you add in.

Any other factors? Are Americans that much more into sports than Canadians? Do they spend more frivolously? Etc.

A lot of US teams will charge less for a ticket even with exchange rate factored in... I remember you used to be able to get 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs and 4 drinks for $99 in Florida. Canadian teams cannot afford to do that so hockey is not only a sport for kids whose parents have money, its also a sport for people with money to go and see games... I went to PWHL game and it cost $30 for 2 beers and a small fry

[seventeen]

Apr 22, 2024 15:06:07 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

I went to PWHL game and it cost $30 for 2 beers and a small fry

I wonder if you could rig up some kind of kit that looks like an oxygen bottle (but filled with beer) and a mask that you slip over your nose and mouth and suddenly you're a COPD sufferer whose cheeks seem to draw in occasionally. I think that could work, but fill the bottle right to the top so it doesn't slosh at the wrong time. (Never accuse me of not being creative).

[seventeen]

Overheard in a Dallas stars office, an assistant coach calling the team doctor:

" Hi Doc. Just offhand, can you please describe to me exactly where on the human body, the spleen is located?"

[Willie Dog]

Apr 22, 2024 16:11:42 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Apr 22, 2024 15:06:07 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

I went to PWHL game and it cost $30 for 2 beers and a small fry

I wonder if you could rig up some kind of kit that looks like an oxygen bottle (but filled with beer) and a mask that you slip over your nose and mouth and suddenly you're a COPD sufferer whose cheeks seem to draw in occasionally. I think that could work, but fill the bottle right to the top so it doesn't slosh at the wrong time. (Never accuse me of not being creative).

We could make a killing on that, all of a sudden thousands of hockey fans have copd... lol

[Skilly]

Sportsnet twisting themselves in knots saying Bertuzzi's high stick goal was close ... it was about 2 feet about the crossbar

[CentreHice]

Bruins have been too tentative in this one. So far, a very winnable game for Toronto.

[Willie Dog]

No one should go near tsn or leafsnet until the Bruins beat the leafs

[jkr]

Toronto win 3-2 on a Matthews 3rd period goal. 3 points fof Matthews.

Why on earth does Montgomery break the cardinal rule of the playoffs- not starting the goalie that won the previous game? Just because you do it during the regular season means nothing now.