Summer 2024 RFA signings and trade speculation

[folatre]

Coming off a disappointing injury plagued season, though with arb rights, Kakko and the Rangers agreed to a one year $2.4 million contract.

Kakko was a guy who probably should never have gone straight to the NHL after the draft, but it is what it is and now the reality is this is a kid with 300 NHL games (plus a lot playoff games) and a rather underwhelming body of work in the league. The fact that all the kid and the club are wiling to do is a status quo one year deal says for me that Kakko wants a change of scenery and New York is probably plenty willing to move on as well.

[drkcloud]

The Kakko and the Kravtsov pick has always made me nervous about Gorton and Bobrov

[folatre]

And Lias Andersson at 7th overall.

Drafting 18 year old kids is not a science. But, yeah, their track record with high pick forwards was far from stellar.

[jkr]

I remember at the time that all the "experts" were saying that Kakko was right there with Hughes.

I'm surprised that he got 2.4 million. He's had a a very ordinary career so far,

[folatre]

I think he made $2.4 million in real dollars this season, so basically it sounds like the two parties who really want a parting of ways are just rubbing stamping the status quo.

I would not doubt that Hughes has kicked tires on Kakko, but I have never really heard that Montreal was committed to putting an aggressive offer on the table. After all, what does a former second overall with length/skill but no significant NHL production warrant after a 300 game sample size?

If Drury wants to move on (Kakko surely does), he will likely have to settle for what will seem like a humbling return. He is not getting a top pick or A grade prospect. In my estimation the best case for the Rangers would be to get a first rounder in the 20-30 range and a solid prospect.

[seventeen]

Jun 13, 2024 21:18:27 GMT -5 drkcloud said:

The Kakko and the Kravtsov pick has always made me nervous about Gorton and Bobrov

He was rated #2 on a LOT of team's lists. This wasn't a Gorton fail, just one of those things that happens occasionally. Lafreniere was being considered a bust until this year and he was definitely consensus #1. Gorton also had a lot of successes with some later picks. The two honest fails were Kravtsov and Andersson.

[seventeen]

Jun 13, 2024 21:59:27 GMT -5 folatre said:

I think he made $2.4 million in real dollars this season, so basically it sounds like the two parties who really want a parting of ways are just rubbing stamping the status quo.

I would not doubt that Hughes has kicked tires on Kakko, but I have never really heard that Montreal was committed to putting an aggressive offer on the table. After all, what does a former second overall with length/skill but no significant NHL production warrant after a 300 game sample size?

If Drury wants to move on (Kakko surely does), he will likely have to settle for what will seem like a humbling return. He is not getting a top pick or A grade prospect. In my estimation the best case for the Rangers would be to get a first rounder in the 20-30 range and a solid prospect.

Yet....I've seen Kakko score the occasional goal where I have uttered 'Wow'.

[folatre]

Kakko is certainly talented but he has never quite established his identity and figured out how to be impactful in the NHL. The Rangers are really strapped for cap space right now and Othmann could probably take his place next season on the roster for less than half the cap hit.

I am still intrigued by Kakko's tool set assuming he loves hockey and is at peace with the very real possibility that he is never going to be a star in the league. However, I am far from sold that he is a lock for a massive break out. Thus the best offer I would table for him would be Colorado's second rounder, Harris, and Vancouver's 2025 third.

Obviously if there is a GM who believes Kakko is going to fulfill even 75 percent of his draft potential, then there will be an offer superior to the one I would make.

[Cranky]

Kakko brings nothing of what we want...SCORING.

If Armia is gone and he takes his place, fine, but adding him and keeping back someone like Beck is utterly unacceptable.

A while back I thought Kakko had a breakout in him, nope, NOTHING. ZIPPO. NADA

I point in 15 playoff games, ONE.

www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=211199

[folatre]

I see Beck learning how to be a pro dog for a season (or at least until the trade deadline) in Laval. In 2025-26 worst case Beck will at least be the 4C and I would bet on him being the 3C, so whoever Hughes adds to the roster on the wing is probably not going to have a big impact on the kid's developmental path.

I am not saying I want to trade for Kakko. My offer is basically a bucket of nothing. Colorado's second will probably never be an NHL regular. Vancouver's third even less of a chance. Yes, Harris is good enough to carve out of career albeit in my opinion as a bottom pair guy.

[Cranky]

At 23, Kakko is unlikely to have a secret bucket of breakout sauce. Sure, for next to nothing, give him a shot but also be prepare to part company if he doesn't amount to more then a 4th liner.

At this point, Kakkos may not even be worth his 2.5 million. A role that can be taken by cheaper developing prospects.

Kakko, Kaliyev, these guy are a shot in the dark and nowhere near someone like Newhook, who was doing OK but far below expectations. He was worth the expenditure because I see him as a 50 point player.

The trick is how to give them a shot without shooting oneself in the foot.

They remind me of seeing a Porshe Design watch in a pawn shop. In order to confirm it was original from a jeweler, I had to buy it. Sure, for a few hundred I take the chance, but at a 1000, pass.

So if they come dirt cheap....

[Willie Dog]

Added to the trade list

http://instagram.com/stories/thecurfewboyspodcast/3390395221077539624

[Cranky]

Jun 15, 2024 6:55:38 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

Added to the trade list

http://instagram.com/stories/thecurfewboyspodcast/3390395221077539624

Can't see anything unless you have an account.

Synopsis?

[Willie Dog]

Jun 15, 2024 11:38:39 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Jun 15, 2024 6:55:38 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

Added to the trade list

http://instagram.com/stories/thecurfewboyspodcast/3390395221077539624

Can't see anything unless you have an account.

Synopsis?

Added an attachment

Attachments:

[seventeen]

That Frank Seravelli is brilliant! Who could possibly have thought Hughes would consider trading Savard and Dvorak?

So incisive!

[NWTHabsFan]

Jun 15, 2024 12:47:02 GMT -5 seventeen said:

That Frank Seravelli is brilliant! Who could possibly have thought Hughes would consider trading Savard and Dvorak?

So incisive!

He is kind of late to the party on those two!

[IamCanadiens]

While the rumour mill is super entertaining this year and the Habs could make a big trade or sign a big UFA, I wouldn't be surprised if they sign someone like Duclair who is affordable, talented and provides good scoring depth.

[Cranky]

I'm so stunned by the insider information and vision these talking heads have.

Let me try my hand at it...."Savard and Dvorak are on Habs trade list".

How did I do? Did I display wisdom, foresight, insider knowledge and dashing good looks?

[folatre]

Dvorak could get moved in the summer. But I think management values Savard too much to start the season with no steadying vet on the right side. Savard will get traded sometime between the January and the 2025 trade deadline.

IamC, yeah for sure, Duclair could be a sneaky good signing. I suppose the impediments to seeing this happen are related to two basic issues. First, unfortunately Montreal has a bunch of veteran wingers (Gallagher, Anderson, Armia) who are more or less impossible to move without retention (and Hughes wants to save his final retention slot for the deadline). So there are fewer roster slots for a player like Duclair than there would be in an ideal world. Second, does management feel like signing Duclair would block a kid who they feel is ready to contribute. I guess the only obvious case could be Roy because I think Ylonen and Harvey-Pinard are not even remotely priority development cases for the organization anymore.

If Hughes does not trade for a young talented top six winger, then I certainly do believe that he will kick tires on a UFA available on a short term deal who can inject offense on the second line. In that event, it could be Duclair. It could be Duchene. It could be Domi, though I think he is going to dig in for more term than Montreal would be interested in.

[Cranky]

Is there an aversion to taking the next step? Why not Reinhart?

If Dach goes down AGAIN we are back struggling to get out of the basement. We won't have Monahan to bail us out and I hardly think Newhook is anyone's selection of a real 2C.

We could be the Sabres on a forever rebuilding cycle...

[folatre]

To be honest I think Reinhart wants to stay there and probably signs for 8 x 9. A suitor would have to table up a Huberdeau contract to get Reinhart to think twice about giving the Panthers the hometown discount. For me that would be a bit too rich for a 29 year old winger who only scored over 33 goals one time in his career.

[PTH]

Jun 16, 2024 17:54:23 GMT -5 folatre said:

To be honest I think Reinhart wants to stay there and probably signs for 8 x 9. A suitor would have to table up a Huberdeau contract to get Reinhart to think twice about giving the Panthers the hometown discount. For me that would be a bit too rich for a 29 year old winger who only scored over 33 goals one time in his career.

If Reinhart gets the kind of dough he's looking for, my play would be for Lundell - he'll cost a bundle to trade for, but he'd be one more building block for the long term.

I'm genuinely unsure what the cost might be to trade for him, but I know it would hurt, but likely be worth it.

[seventeen]

Kapanen could easily be as good as Lundell.

[folatre]

Regarding Kapanen, time will say. For a third line center Lundell's career is off to a good start. He will be 23 years old in the fall and 112 points over the life of player's ELC is nice productivity. And the kid has fully bought into the way Maurice insists the Panthers play in all three zones. Unlucky for him with the cap issues facing Florida, he is all but assured to get squeezed on a cheap bridge deal.

Because they can squeeze the kid with no arb rights, I do not necessarily see why Florida would be actively talking to other clubs about him. But who knows. If Zito thinks Luostarinen is well suited to play the pivot (the kid played very well at center when Bennett was injured early in the season), then maybe management will conclude hey we don't want to trade Lundell but if legit offers start coming in we'll have to listen.

Hughes is likely sniffing around. I believe the cost would be high because Lundell is likely a second line center for a lot of teams in the league and where he is in his career is attractive not only for established playoff teams but also up and coming teams.

[PTH]

Jun 17, 2024 19:26:30 GMT -5 folatre said:

Regarding Kapanen, time will say. For a third line center Lundell's career is off to a good start. He will be 23 years old in the fall and 112 points over the life of player's ELC is nice productivity. And the kid has fully bought into the way Maurice insists the Panthers play in all three zones. Unlucky for him with the cap issues facing Florida, he is all but assured to get squeezed on a cheap bridge deal.

Because they can squeeze the kid with no arb rights, I do not necessarily see why Florida would be actively talking to other clubs about him. But who knows. If Zito thinks Luostarinen is well suited to play the pivot (the kid played very well at center when Bennett was injured early in the season), then maybe management will conclude hey we don't want to trade Lundell but if legit offers start coming in we'll have to listen.

Hughes is likely sniffing around. I believe the cost would be high because Lundell is likely a second line center for a lot of teams in the league and where he is in his career is attractive not only for established playoff teams but also up and coming teams.

Hmmm, I hadn't considered how (lack of) arbitration rights might make Lundell less likely to get moved, and compared to Newhook he's shown more so a bridge deal isn't as much of an issue.
Oh well.

[folatre]

Maybe I am using the term 'bridge' incorrectly. I basically use it to refer to a one or two year contract for a RFA.

Newhook and Dach were not arbitration eligible when Montreal acquired them. Hughes saw fit (smartly I think) to give them solid four year contracts. Perhaps those are technically bridge deals because the guys were RFAs and the contracts they signed leave them short of UFA status.

[folatre]

Regarding Lundell, if the Panthers are in a cap jam, Zito could just tell the kid sorry all we can allocate for your contract is $2 million per. Lundell has no leverage so what can he do. Sure maybe he is sour and resentful, but he basically has to sign the deal. However, a club can only play hardball like that when they are imposing a short-term deal (one or two years) on a kid coming off his ELC. Zito would not be able to say how about you sign a four year contract at $2 million per because the kid's agent would say go screw yourself my client is not coming to camp and in fact requests a trade.

[folatre]

Hronek gets 8 years at $7.25 AAV from Vancouver. He seems like the guy Quinn Hughes wants to play with and he was very good for the majority of the regular season. I would be incredibly worried if this guy was a forward because a contract running through age 34 would likely careen off the cliff, but maybe for d-man and the rising cap this does not seem like a total suicide signing.

[seventeen]

Jun 18, 2024 18:26:32 GMT -5 folatre said:

Maybe I am using the term 'bridge' incorrectly. I basically use it to refer to a one or two year contract for a RFA.

Newhook and Dach were not arbitration eligible when Montreal acquired them. Hughes saw fit (smartly I think) to give them solid four year contracts. Perhaps those are technically bridge deals because the guys were RFAs and the contracts they signed leave them short of UFA status.

If I had to choose between Lundell and Newhook, I'd pick Newhook. I haven't seen enough offense from Lundell to impress me, while Newhook looked really good after he came back from that last injury, even while playing centre. The speed was there and his ppg were pretty good. And besides, he's from Newfoundland.

[seventeen]

Jun 18, 2024 20:53:55 GMT -5 folatre said:

Hronek gets 8 years at $7.25 AAV from Vancouver. He seems like the guy Quinn Hughes wants to play with and he was very good for the majority of the regular season. I would be incredibly worried if this guy was a forward because a contract running through age 34 would likely careen off the cliff, but maybe for d-man and the rising cap this does not seem like a total suicide signing.

Elliotte Friedman said a week ago that good Dmen were going to get paid and he was right. This is great for the Habs because if we're talking trade with some team for a top 6 forward, dangling a promising, cheap, cheap, cheap, defenseman is going to have a lot of value. Instead of $7MM, they'd be looking at $2MM for a guy who will likely progress to be as good as Hronek. Value, baby.