Summer 2024 RFA signings and trade speculation

[Cranky]

As long as we are not losing our MiniMinistry of Defense in the making, I'm good.

[NWTHabsFan]

Awaiting official news and price.

[folatre]

Seth Jarvis signs for 8 years. Apparently, the cap hit will be $7.42 million per. However, the novelty of this contract is the use of deferred money. Honestly, I was not even aware the current CBA allowed it.

Anyway, apparently, Jarvis is getting $3.84 million on July 1, 2032, the day after his contract expires. And obviously in Bettman's NHL nothing is free from cap counting. So Carolina will be stuck with this amount against their 2032-33 cap, when Jarvis may or may not be a Hurricane.

I cannot blame Tulsky for using this CBA stipulation to his organizations advantage. A $7.42 AAV is easier to digest than the full $7.9 AAV would have been. The part that I do not get is what the heck is in this for Jarvis. The present value of a dollar is worth more than the future value. And it is not as though he getting the deferred money when he is in a more advantageous tax position in retirement. Jarvis will be 30 years old on July 1, 2032 so he will still be raking in millions annually in Carolina or elsewhere.

The only thing I can think of is that Dundon, who hates July 1 bonuses, relented in Jarvis' case and will be writing huge checks on July 1 over the course of this contract. So maybe that concession made Jarvis and his agent agree to helping the club out with the AAV

[seventeen]

Yep, present value rules.

My wife and I used to be able to have breakfast at a White Spot for around $35. It is now $52-$55 for the same thing, 3 years later. Wouldn't Mr. Jarvis have liked to have his $3.84MM earlier in his career when it could be invested and perhaps be worth 50% more by contract end? It's not complicated math Seth.

[NWTHabsFan]

It does not save a huge chunk of cap aav based on the time value of money over the typical contract, but it does leave a team with some salary commitments longer than the player is actually playing.

[seventeen]

Sept 1, 2024 12:19:09 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

It does not save a huge chunk of cap aav based on the time value of money over the typical contract, but it does leave a team with some salary commitments longer than the player is actually playing.

Dundon will have sold out by then. Count on it.

[folatre]

Jeje, I was thinking the same thing. Dundon thought he was so smart that he would have already won a Cup while he was rolling along with a roster replete with team-friendly deals for all these years. Now the roster is starting to be depleted a bit by guys who want their market worth. I would see the owner looking at franchise values at all time highs and saying hey I'll take a billion dollars since staying put and running this business is thornier than I wanted.

In my post above, the figure of $3.84 million that I used was not referenced correctly. Jarvis is astonishingly (again, no idea why he agreed to do this since he will not be retired) deferring $15.67 million until July 1, 2032. Based on the present value of the $15.57 million, the NHL is calculating that only $3.84 million is allowed to elude the salary cap. Therefore, the vast majority ($11.83) of the $15.57 million is not eluding the cap.

I think it is relatively clear why the league assumed this stipulation in the CBA was not destined to be a scary trigger that clubs could manipulate to enact huge cap circumvention. First of all, players logically want their money sooner rather than later, so it is not like guys are lining up to agree to do this, though I am sure in cap strapped places like Toronto and Vegas, GMs may have broached the subject with players/agents, only to get dismissively shut down before the conversation even started. Second, the present value calculation assigns the vast majority of the deferred money to the duration of the actual contract, so the cap savings are really quite modest even in the most extreme case (Jarvis).

[Cranky]

If nothing else, taxes will go UP in time.

In the last little while, Ontario and Quebec have raised taxes by 7.1% on high earners. Kamala is committed to fleecing those who make more then 400k.

Nobody accused hockey player of being economic geniuses.

[seventeen]

Sept 1, 2024 23:56:33 GMT -5 Cranky said:

If nothing else, taxes will go UP in time.

In the last little while, Ontario and Quebec have raised taxes by 7.1% on high earners. Kamala is committed to fleecing those who make more then 400k.

Nobody accused hockey player of being economic geniuses.

Tax rates going up for the ridiculously rich is not a problem for me. In the 50's the highest marginal tax rate in the US was 91% for couples earning more than $400,000 a year and for singles earning more than $200,000. But that has to be taken into context. Today's figure for that salary is about $4.5MM a year for couples and half of that for singles. Anyone earning that amount is not hurting. We're not talking corporate tax rates either, which Trump reduced from 35% to 21%. No wonder the debt is rising.

Does anyone think Jeff Bezos' Amazon is going to miss a few Billion dollars? Pocket change. Amazon's revenue in 2023 was $575 MM and with (no doubt) a few hundred accounting tricks, their net profit was only 30.4 Billion. I don't have any sympathy for high marginal tax rates for such individuals or companies.

That still allows the middle class to have reasonable tax rates, without hurting the attraction of a country to the best and brightest.

[jkr]

Looks like the Leafs have signed Pacioretty for the upcoming season. He's almost 36 with serious achilles injuries in his past. Don't know how much he could help.

www.thescore.com/nhl/news/3071930

[HABsurd]

Sept 10, 2024 16:11:14 GMT -5 jkr said:

Looks like the Leafs have signed Pacioretty for the upcoming season. He's almost 36 with serious achilles injuries in his past. Don't know how much he could help.

www.thescore.com/nhl/news/3071930

Is he going to wear #67?

[Willie Dog]

In the article, this stuck out to me

Perimeter shooting threat, slow skater, struggled with turnovers and not super involved defensively. Reclamation project.

[folatre]

Good luck to him. For me Pacioretty is done. His body broke down. He can't skate anymore. Toronto's top power play unit stays out there for no less than 90 seconds, so there are not really any cookies for the second unit. And does anyone really believe Pacioretty at his age can be regular middle six winger on a team that wants to profile as a contender for the Cup?

[seventeen]

Sept 10, 2024 16:57:39 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

In the article, this stuck out to me

Perimeter shooting threat, slow skater, struggled with turnovers and not super involved defensively. Reclamation project.

What struck me was "slow skater". Max was always one of the fastest guys around. He didn't look fast because of that long, strong stride. I'm pretty sure I saw him in one game last year with Washington and he didn't look markedly slower to me. Age may have had an effect and those achilles injuries, but he's still probably faster than most Leafs. I don't believe there was an attribution to that comment, so it could just be someone who doesn't like the signing. Some of the Leafs worst critics are their fans.

[folatre]

The reason that most forwards fall off a cliff somewhere in the age 33-35 range is not because guys with lose their hands or their hockey sense. It is almost always because injuries and/or the pace of the game become the issue.

Yes, Pacioretty was a good skater with very good straight line separation speed. But for that matter, younger Ovechkin had a strong stride and despite the fact he has basically played an injury free career, he is really slow now. I am not saying prime Ovechkin could skate with prime Pacioretty, but I think both have a lost a step or two.

There are a very few freaks who can still skate effortlessly at 35+ (Modano), but that is the exception to the rule.

[Andrew]

At this point in his career 50GP and 15 goals would be a successful season for Max. Best of luck in TO, but I don't see him moving the needle at all for the Leafs.

He had some really good years in Montreal providing much needed goal scoring for us. I never saw leadership qualities worthy of captaincy, but he was a good player nonetheless.

[seventeen]

Sept 12, 2024 11:23:48 GMT -5 Andrew said:

At this point in his career 50GP and 15 goals would be a successful season for Max. Best of luck in TO, but I don't see him moving the needle at all for the Leafs.

He had some really good years in Montreal providing much needed goal scoring for us. I never saw leadership qualities worthy of captaincy, but he was a good player nonetheless.

He had bugger all for centre ice men, too, so his achievements were not helped out by anyone but himself.

[Willie Dog]

I think the loafs,are hoping he can help them score in the playoffs, if he plays 40 to 50 games in the regular season, that's fine, I think they feel they're a couple of goals away from moving further in the playoffs... Imo money would have been better spent solidifying their D.

[folatre]

Detroit signs Raymond for 8 years/$64.6 million. I think it is fair given the season the kid just had. However, Yzerman is probably wearing sour face this evening because not getting serious last season before Raymond's final ELC season was not in retrospect the wisest of decisions. There is no way to know, but it would not surprise me if the kid would have taken $7.5 per for 8 years.

Now Yzerman has $8.7 in cap space remaining for Seider. That should be enough, but who knows. As a relatively new player agent, Claude Lemieux may want to plant the flag. I can understand that he would insist his client gets more than Sanderson and Power, and maybe his case would be that Seider is also more proven than Faber. But man, if the kid is on board for holding out to get more than $8.7, that is spicy. Perhaps Yzerman will try to pivot onto a bridge deal, which would still have to be incredibly elevated to get Lemieux/Seider to play ball. Could a great young d-man who was not even arbitration eligible demand and actually get 2 years/$12 million?

[Willie Dog]

Flames clearing house, are they tanking for Hagens or Martone?

http://instagram.com/p/C_WicNVgOX0

[folatre]

Conroy is listening on Huberdeau, eh? Well, he must be enjoying the sound of silence.

Kadri is certainly tradeable, though unless Calgary eats a couple of sheets annually on that contract, the return is going to be very modest because the player is a 34 years old center who does not remind anyone of Mike Modano so the last two or three years (age 36-38) on that contract are probably going to be cringe-worthy.

Weegar is also certainly tradeable and likely without retention. However, he did not play last season like the d-man he used to be, so buyer beware considering the term is long (7 more years) and the hit ($6.25) is not exactly a bargain.

Andersson is the guy that will probably fetch a first rounder and a very good prospect because the guy is an excellent two-way RHD in the prime of his career on a good contract with two playoff runs for the potential buyer.

Anybody else get the feeling that the Flames are going to be absolutely horrid until the new barn there opens? I sure do.

[seventeen]

Sept 18, 2024 18:41:32 GMT -5 folatre said:

Anybody else get the feeling that the Flames are going to be absolutely horrid until the new barn there opens? I sure do.

This is all the more reason for all of us on HabsRus todig out our voodoo dolls and poke huge pins into Bobrovsky and Barkov. It is essential that the Panthers miss the playoffs, so they keep their pick and force Calgary to hand theirs to us instead. That's how you get a top pick while making the playoffs yourself.

[Cranky]

I always liked Kadri but at 7 million, he's not going to give our money's worth. He was also a huge Habs fan but at his age, I don't put much value in that.

Weeger goes from scoring single digits to 20. Yeah, nothing suspicious about the sudden jump. Those pain killers must be by the bucket.

Hebredeau... 10.5M. NEVER

Anderson...is interesting but not for us. We got too many prospects that are hungry for that spot. Plus he's going to ask and get 7x7 plus.

[jkr]

I guess Conroy is cleaning up the deals Treliving left behind.