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Post by PTH on Aug 2, 2022 9:18:39 GMT -5
I'm not going to pretend I remember anything from Dach at any level, but I do know that getting players out of dumpster fires sometimes helps them take an extra step.
In a weird draft year it's possible the value of a 13th pick wasn't going to add up with the potential from a recent draft, where the whole first round had a lot of randomness. That being said, I'm not sure I love Hughes' preference for guys with a track record... it lowers risk, of course - we know Dach can play in the NHL without looking completely out of place. But, we also lost out on the potential of a superstar. No future superstar gets traded after 3 seasons in the NHL at discount prices.
ie... this feels like a Bergevin move. Low risk, but that also implies low upside.
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Post by BadCompany on Aug 4, 2022 8:35:40 GMT -5
I view the Dach trade as an interesting test case for this management team. Hughes is on record for saying he likes actual prospects with a body of work over a draft pick. I don’t mind the thinking but count me in the skeptical camp when it comes to Dach. A 6-4 200 lb center with a pretty miserable offensive track record going back to his 3 years in junior where he wasn’t even a PPG player. His pro career has been interrupted by injuries but if he wasn’t 6-4 and 200 lbs he’d be a pretty ordinary player. Which is what concerns me. Not saying he wasn’t worth trading for as the scouts and Marty may feel there’s a lot to work with but I’m not sure there’s a ton of precedent for guys with Dach’s history turning into much more than a 3rd liner. Slafkovsky and Dach versus Wright and Romanov. That's what it comes down to, in my opinion. Both Slafkovsky and Dach seem like gambles to me, whereas Wright and Romanov are more sure-things. The upside for all four, from the outside at least, seem rather comparable (first line center versus first line winger, second line center versus top 3 defenseman). All are young, there are no contract issues, no readily evident character flaws. This is purely player versus player. Not gambles I would have taken, and indeed I think they were unnecessary gambles, given the relative risk/reward value for each player involved. So either Hughes is the smartest man in the room, or an attention-seeking river-boat gambler. (or all four mediocre-out and this turns into a nothing-burger) |
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Post by folatre on Aug 4, 2022 14:06:08 GMT -5
Renaud Lavoie was on the NHL Network yesterday. He said Price is unlikely to be ready for the season. Also he said Byron has not even started skating on his own yet.
Degenerative knee problems and hip injuries are the worst. They can be career enders.
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Post by jkr on Aug 4, 2022 20:10:47 GMT -5
I view the Dach trade as an interesting test case for this management team. Hughes is on record for saying he likes actual prospects with a body of work over a draft pick. I don’t mind the thinking but count me in the skeptical camp when it comes to Dach. A 6-4 200 lb center with a pretty miserable offensive track record going back to his 3 years in junior where he wasn’t even a PPG player. His pro career has been interrupted by injuries but if he wasn’t 6-4 and 200 lbs he’d be a pretty ordinary player. Which is what concerns me. Not saying he wasn’t worth trading for as the scouts and Marty may feel there’s a lot to work with but I’m not sure there’s a ton of precedent for guys with Dach’s history turning into much more than a 3rd liner. Slafkovsky and Dach versus Wright and Romanov. That's what it comes down to, in my opinion. Both Slafkovsky and Dach seem like gambles to me, whereas Wright and Romanov are more sure-things. The upside for all four, from the outside at least, seem rather comparable (first line center versus first line winger, second line center versus top 3 defenseman). All are young, there are no contract issues, no readily evident character flaws. This is purely player versus player. Not gambles I would have taken, and indeed I think they were unnecessary gambles, given the relative risk/reward value for each player involved. So either Hughes is the smartest man in the room, or an attention-seeking river-boat gambler. (or all four mediocre-out and this turns into a nothing-burger) Dismissing Hughes as a guy that takes chances on deals because he wants headlines? That's off the mark and kind of insulting. I've wavered on these moves too but I don't believe he's dealing just for the sake of dealing. It fits with his stated philosophy of acquiring an experienced young prospect vs. the draft pick. I can see the value in it and am willing to see how it plays out. |
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Post by Skilly on Aug 5, 2022 11:44:03 GMT -5
Slafkovsky and Dach versus Wright and Romanov. That's what it comes down to, in my opinion. Both Slafkovsky and Dach seem like gambles to me, whereas Wright and Romanov are more sure-things. The upside for all four, from the outside at least, seem rather comparable (first line center versus first line winger, second line center versus top 3 defenseman). All are young, there are no contract issues, no readily evident character flaws. This is purely player versus player. Not gambles I would have taken, and indeed I think they were unnecessary gambles, given the relative risk/reward value for each player involved. So either Hughes is the smartest man in the room, or an attention-seeking river-boat gambler. (or all four mediocre-out and this turns into a nothing-burger) Dismissing Hughes as a guy that takes chances on deals because he wants headlines? That's off the mark and kind of insulting. I've wavered on these moves too but I don't believe he's dealing just for the sake of dealing. It fits with his stated philosophy of acquiring an experienced young prospect vs. the draft pick. I can see the value in it and am willing to see how it plays out. On the surface it seems that way. But if he dealt for Dach with the intent of making the Slafkovsky over Wright pick more palatable, then he did kinda make a deal just to make a deal. Because if we chose Wright, we didn’t need Dach |
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Post by jkr on Aug 5, 2022 12:22:17 GMT -5
I see it differently.
A confident management team will choose the player that they feel is better long term. I cant see them trading for Dach or anyone else just to appease fans.
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Post by Scotty D on Aug 5, 2022 12:33:27 GMT -5
I see it differently. A confident management team will choose the player that they feel is better long term. I cant see them trading for Dach or anyone else just to appease fans. confidence does not necassarily translate into smart decision making. Not saying this is the case here because i am among those who feel they deserve the oppportunity to prove the plan they seemingly have in place will pan out ... patience will wear thin very quickly if things stay south too long. |
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Post by Skilly on Aug 5, 2022 12:54:31 GMT -5
I see it differently. A confident management team will choose the player that they feel is better long term. I cant see them trading for Dach or anyone else just to appease fans. This team is littered with historical acquisitions just to appease fans/media. Now, this is a new management team, and should likely be given the benefit of the doubt. But there is no mistaking, that they chose the risky path. So risky they still haven't signed Dach. |
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Post by seventeen on Aug 5, 2022 19:02:19 GMT -5
I suspect the Dach signing is already negotiated, but there is some CAP space to be worked out first. You don't trade for the 13th overall pick to throw it away. Now plans 'gang aft agley' as the Scots say (I wish they'd speak English), so who knows if this turned into Plan B somehow. We have some capable people running the team so even if it's Plan B, they'll make it work out. The Petry trade has turned out ok, despite the lack of suitors. We essentially have a Petry 2.0 who is 6 years younger.
They managed to move the Weber contract, once thought to be legs wrapped in cement, so I think a bit of time to sort out Dach has been earned.
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Post by Skilly on Aug 5, 2022 21:28:05 GMT -5
I suspect the Dach signing is already negotiated, but there is some CAP space to be worked out first. You don't trade for the 13th overall pick to throw it away. Now plans 'gang aft agley' as the Scots say (I wish they'd speak English), so who knows if this turned into Plan B somehow. We have some capable people running the team so even if it's Plan B, they'll make it work out. The Petry trade has turned out ok, despite the lack of suitors. We essentially have a Petry 2.0 who is 6 years younger. They managed to move the Weber contract, once thought to be legs wrapped in cement, so I think a bit of time to sort out Dach has been earned. We are 35 days out from training camp. They haven't earned much time. |
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Post by habsask on Aug 5, 2022 23:59:38 GMT -5
I suspect the Dach signing is already negotiated, but there is some CAP space to be worked out first. You don't trade for the 13th overall pick to throw it away. Now plans 'gang aft agley' as the Scots say (I wish they'd speak English), so who knows if this turned into Plan B somehow. We have some capable people running the team so even if it's Plan B, they'll make it work out. The Petry trade has turned out ok, despite the lack of suitors. We essentially have a Petry 2.0 who is 6 years younger. They managed to move the Weber contract, once thought to be legs wrapped in cement, so I think a bit of time to sort out Dach has been earned. I agree with seventeen. I also find interesting the arguments about Hughes adopting a "high risk strategy". Slafkovsky played 1 season in a men's league where the teams emphasize, from what I've read, structure & defense. So Slaf was told to work on developing his defensive game. In the international men's competitions his point totals were better albeit mainly against the weaker teams. So he projects as a power forward who can skate, pass & get points and who can also play defense. Whether he reaches that projection remains to be seen but that's no different than with any other prospect in the 22 draft including Wright. And in terms of maturity Slaf appears to be ahead of Wright from what I've read. He's not taking anything for granted (unlike Wright) & he's already focused on what he needs to do to get better. Wright's reaction after the draft looked to me like he was just stunned he wasn't drafted first. And when I look at Wright I can't help thinking of Doug Wickenheiser drafted No. 1 Overall by the Habs in 1980. He was supposed to be "the answer" for the Habs at center but never amounted to all that much. Surely never approached being an elite or even very good talent in the NHL. So in my eyes Wight's just as big of a risk as Slaf or Dach. As for Dach, again from what I've read, he had a reasonable good first season for a rookie, broke his rist in his 2nd season & needed an operation which was still bothering him in year 3. Plus all the COVID business and the Blackhawk organization's complete meltdown. St Louis is the perfect coach to bring out whatever skills Dach has and to restore his confidence. IMHO I hope he starts the season and is given a really good chance to be the No. 2 Center with talented wingers. Will Wright be asked to play on a 3rd line? I doubt it. So that's where I'm at at the moment. Cheers |
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Post by habsorbed on Aug 6, 2022 0:31:08 GMT -5
Time will tell whether Slafs was a high risk. At this point I would say "no". If Wright had been picked immediately at 2nd then I might be doubting HuGo. but both Jersey and Ariz took a pass. Clearly, Wright was not the consensus #1 pick.
I agree with Habsask: I was not impressed with Wright's reaction to his fate. If he thought that scenario was tough, what would have happened the minute he struggles in Mtl - ouch! Seattle may be the best place for him - they will be much more forgiving and give him time to find his way. These guys are only teenagers but I have a feeling that Slafs will handle the Mtl pressure much better. I think HuGo factored that into the pick. I'm sure Hughes is fully aware of pressure on kids in Mtl.
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Post by seventeen on Aug 6, 2022 12:32:25 GMT -5
Another factor to consider is drive and incentive. Slovakia is a poor country. Eight years ago i bought a round of 5 pints of good beer in Bratislava for 5 Euros. That was $7.50 Cdn. The incentive to play NHL hockey and support your family is great. Compare that to a kid who’s been the center of attention his whole life. Who is going to work harder to get better? Who moved away from home to play in tougher leagues? Who stayed home and missed a year of competitive play? I’m sure all these aspects came into play in the decision.
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Post by Skilly on Aug 6, 2022 13:11:34 GMT -5
Another factor to consider is drive and incentive. Slovakia is a poor country. Eight years ago i bought a round of 5 pints of good beer in Bratislava for 5 Euros. That was $7.50 Cdn. The incentive to play NHL hockey and support your family is great. Compare that to a kid who’s been the center of attention his whole life. Who is going to work harder to get better? Who moved away from home to play in tougher leagues? Who stayed home and missed a year of competitive play? I’m sure all these aspects came into play in the decision. And they all mean nothing. They are subjective analysis. Who would you rather? The 80 point arse, or the 50 point nice guy? Talent is talent. Hughes only wins this decision if Slaf out scores Wright in his career. Wright seems to make his linemates better, but Slaf doesn't make others around him better on the ice, just better humans. We will all be cheering for Slaf. But please, stop the "characterization" BS when no one knows the kid. |
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Post by Cranky on Aug 6, 2022 13:58:58 GMT -5
Slafkovsky and Dach versus Wright and Romanov. Wright has the wrong attitude and the wrong skill set. From his limited conversations he had "i deserve" attitude which is a coffin maker. A 200ft center in juniors is discount mystery beef at BillyBobs Butcher Shoppe. You need to see exceptional numbers AND "defensive responsibility" as a bonus, not the highlight. Slaf attitude...from his treatment of fellow juniors, he appears to have Alpha Dog attitude which may blossom to something to behold, Tkachuk style...or flames out when met with bad hair day defenseman. Romanov has limited offence and redundant. Guhle is crown prince top 4 in waiting and i think there is a 50/50 chance we got Weber Jr. The very least, a better Romanov. Shirley you would keep Guhle over Romanov. Wright? Dach....i don't know. He's probably a real 2C or a stupid trade. I'm on the fence on this because i know that wrist injuries are vicious little problems that refuse to go away. Every time i practiced my slap/wrist shot, my wrists reminded me of what annoyance they were capable of and i never even broke any to begin with. This trade has limited upside and a decent chance of a disaster. So Slaf/Dach vs Wright/Romanov? It's really all about Slaf. Dach can be a dud but IF Slaf becomes a Tkachuk return it's a slam dunk winner. IF... |
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Post by folatre on Aug 6, 2022 18:59:26 GMT -5
Hockey is debatable, but I am not inclined to feel so sure about what Hughes bet on. Foremost, it also depends on what Wright becomes. If he plays in the league 10-15 seasons and has a Krejci or Ryan Johansen type career, then Slafkovsky would have to be a superstar wing in order to clearly eclipse a very good NHL centre.
Dach may turn out to be a serviceable 2C, but at this stage Romanov accomplished more on his ELC than Dach. And I would say it is somewhat likelier that Romanov carves out a 12 years as a second pair d-man than it is that Dach figures it out and has a long career as a top six forward.
I get it that everything is connected to everything. But I do not see how Guhle's ceiling, which is still a little open to question in my estimation, is the determinate factor in whether trading Romanov (plus two mid-rounders) for Dach was a wise move. Tampa, for many seasons, has had a left side of Hedman, McDonaugh, and Sergachev. So it would not have necessarily been a bad thing to roll out Guhle, Romanov, and Matheson.
These are good hockey debates, but of course we will not have any remotely definitive answer for another decade.
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Post by jkr on Aug 7, 2022 6:21:24 GMT -5
I fully understand the need for the 1-2 punch up the middle but I dont think Slafkovsky has to be a superstar type player to justify picking him over a guy who's ceiling may be a 50-60 point guy, which Krejci and Johansen have been most of their careers.
If he turns into a Pacioretty type, that can regularly score 30 plus, that would do it for me.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Aug 7, 2022 10:52:29 GMT -5
We shouldn’t forget that Hughes has no experience as a talent evaluator so these decisions required the full endorsement of Gorton and the hockey people. I tend to doubt that Hughes went off the reservation with these moves, but I agree with BC that it was risky.
I think Slaf has to be more than just a scorer but I guess 40 goals would shut me up. My dream for him is he has a bit of Alex Kovalev in him, a dynamic playmaker and elite finisher from the wing. Not sure he has that in him but that’s the only reason I would have picked him ahead of Wright.
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 7, 2022 11:38:55 GMT -5
We shouldn’t forget that Hughes has no experience as a talent evaluator so these decisions required the full endorsement of Gorton and the hockey people. I tend to doubt that Hughes went off the reservation with these moves, but I agree with BC that it was risky. I think Slaf has to be more than just a scorer but I guess 40 goals would shut me up. My dream for him is he has a bit of Alex Kovalev in him, a dynamic playmaker and elite finisher from the wing. Not sure he has that in him but that’s the only reason I would have picked him ahead of Wright. I wouldn't say Hughes isn't a talent evaluator, as an agent he'd have to decide which kid to try and land and of course the talent/ability to make the pros and determine the effort to put in... I would say there is some scouting talent in each agent... |
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Post by seventeen on Aug 7, 2022 13:33:22 GMT -5
I suspect Hughes deferred to the scouting staff, while still having a personal opinion. You don't hire a bunch of experts in their field and then handcuff them by micro managing. He made enough references to Bobrov and Lapointe to give me the impression those guys were the ones providing the information and that it was a collective decision.
A key point is that there was no McDavid or Mackinnon in this draft. The scenario was much closer to the Hischier/Patrick draft. There were teams still not sold on Makar that year because he played in a lower league than the CHL. Sometimes it's better not to have the top pick. Regardless, Wright had question marks around him. He still might be the best result out of this draft, and he was my pick, but I can understand the reasoning behind choosing Slafkovsky. Big kid, still maturing, already impressing against men. Three years from now, what might he look like? Yeah, it's risky, but if it works out like the Makar pick (riskiness wise), no one will be complaining.
I wonder how much Wright's decision to stay home and not play in 2021 affected Montreal's front office? I found it peculiar as well. Savoie went to the USHL, why not Wright? Ok, there were question marks around whether the OHL would have a season or not, but surely he could have had an agreement in place to return to Kingston if the OHL played that year. Any USHL team would be thrilled to have him, wouldn't one think? Increased attendance, better winning record and so on. Yet he chose to take the safe route.
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Post by Cranky on Aug 7, 2022 14:16:54 GMT -5
33 DAYS
(And all your questions will be answered...by the level of donations to my Porsche Charity.)
I'm expecting miracles...(or the very least, suprises.)
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Post by franko on Aug 7, 2022 14:38:04 GMT -5
ah, the pre-pre-season games . . .
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Post by seventeen on Aug 8, 2022 11:51:52 GMT -5
33 DAYS (And all your questions will be answered...by the level of donations to my Porsche Charity.) I'm expecting miracles...(or the very least, suprises.) Don't you already have one (a Porsche), or is it a Lambo? |
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Post by Andrew on Aug 8, 2022 15:29:21 GMT -5
As for Dach, again from what I've read, he had a reasonable good first season for a rookie, broke his rist in his 2nd season & needed an operation which was still bothering him in year 3. Plus all the COVID business and the Blackhawk organization's complete meltdown. St Louis is the perfect coach to bring out whatever skills Dach has and to restore his confidence. IMHO I hope he starts the season and is given a really good chance to be the No. 2 Center with talented wingers. Dach could end up being a longer term project due to his size. A fantasy hockey site that I follow talks about breakout thresholds among offensive players, and observes that bigger players take up to 400 games to breakout offensively (e.g. Nichushkin last year). Dach is at 150gp, so it could be 3+ seasons before he shows what he really is. Take it for what it's worth, but here's the article explaining it ( Article: Breakout Thresholds). Also worth noting that Suzuki is at the 200 game mark in which average sized players typically see a jump in production. |
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Post by folatre on Aug 14, 2022 16:53:22 GMT -5
The points you make are indeed valid with respect to many big forwards taking longer to develop. And I am open-minded that Dach can get his career back on track.
However, for me the cost the Habs paid seems somewhat inflated. Montreal's management is gambling here because they gave up the 13th overall (Romanov) and a couple of fourth rounders to acquire him. Whereas Sakic grabbed Nichuskin off the garbage pile after Dallas bought him out.
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Post by seventeen on Aug 14, 2022 18:13:49 GMT -5
The points you make are indeed valid with respect to many big forwards taking longer to develop. And I am open-minded that Dach can get his career back on track. However, for me the cost the Habs paid seems somewhat inflated. Montreal's management is gambling here because they gave up the 13th overall (Romanov) and a couple of fourth rounders to acquire him. Whereas Sakic grabbed Nichuskin off the garbage pile after Dallas bought him out. Contract year - UFA. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Nicushkin reverts back to his 35 points per year pace. We've all seen way too many guys have career years just before turning UFA, or in their final contract year. That's puzzling in a way because surely the player can see that they are capable of playing at that level, but they don't do it (Lucic, Eriksson..etc, etc). Maybe the effort they put out is just too hard to maintain, as the discipline needed to play above your usual level is taxing. Or maybe he'll put up a point per game and I'll have to shut up. I thought he was easily the best guy on his line and one of Colorado's top 3 players in the playoffs. Is he really a late bloomer, or just another UFA to be having a great sample size? |
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Post by folatre on Aug 14, 2022 20:31:24 GMT -5
For sure, after taking a risk-free flier on Nicushkin after Dallas threw him away, now Sakic is in rather deep in terms of risk. $6.125 million per through age 35 for a guy who had one excellent season in the NHL gives one pause.
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 15, 2022 7:45:13 GMT -5
I am hopeful that if Drouin has a good season that HuGo do not fall into this trap... they don't have a vested interest in Drouin like burgerbrain did..
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Post by Cranky on Aug 15, 2022 13:28:03 GMT -5
I wonder if that super duper seasonn comes with a lot of medicinal help.
Just speculating...
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Post by drkcloud on Aug 18, 2022 18:42:56 GMT -5
Dach playing hardball? Hour seems to be getting late and he doesn't have a lot of options
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